The numbers are stated judgments. The record began on 15 October 2026 with starting confidences that a model set as the average of five separate readings, from its general knowledge and up to ten developments for each assessment first reported in the three weeks before, after a second model had checked the developments the readings relied on, and a published rule has made every change since. They are not measured probabilities. The question and the rule are fixed before the record begins, and each change shows its evidence and its reasons. The rule and what is not claimed are on the method page.
Through 2027, access to grid power and interconnection, rather than the supply of accelerators or the availability of capital, sets the pace of AI data centre buildout in the United States.
Status: Holds The alternative is the main assessment's rival: the two cannot both be right. The thesis holds when the main assessment stands at 60 per cent or more, the condition it rests on at 50 per cent or more, the alternative below 50 per cent, and no recent change has moved toward the alternative. It is inverted when the main assessment falls below 40 per cent, when the alternative is more likely than the main assessment, or when several recent changes have moved toward the alternative. Otherwise it is strained.
As of 15 October 2026, 10:48 UTC, day 0 of the record, which began on 15 October 2026.
Last checked for news: 15 October 2026, 11:10 UTC. The update loop checks once a day, and each day’s state is written at the end of the day.
What to expect. The rule moves a number only after at least 2 independent publishers report the same development within 7 days of its first report. One development then moves an assessment by at most about 2.2 percentage points when an outlet graded high reports it, and by under one percentage point when every outlet reporting it is graded unknown. Of the 75 outlets the update loop has read for this record so far, 63 are graded unknown. The update loop has not yet read a development new to the record since it began.
What the thesis rests on, and what would replace it
Through the end of 2027, what sets the pace at which AI data centres are built and connected to power in the United States?
Grid power and interconnection are the binding constraint on US AI data centre buildout through 2027.
Capital spending on AI infrastructure by the largest US cloud companies keeps rising through 2027, so demand keeps pressing on the power constraint.
Demand for AI computing sets the pace of US AI data centre buildout through 2027, with the largest spenders building as fast as the revenue AI earns justifies.
What the update loop read
Each daily state records what the update loop read in its day. Set aside means a development fitted the assessment and each of its rival explanations equally, so it carries no weight.
The reading is recorded from the record’s second day.
What the update loop read, and what the rule made of it
These are the update loop's working notes: each development it read, how it read it, and what the published rule makes of that reading. They are not part of the sealed record and they move nothing. Only a sealed change, made by the rule, moves a number.
Since the record began, the update loop has not yet read a development first reported after it began.
The daily states record what the update loop read from the record's second day, and none has been sealed yet. Both count a development once for each assessment it bears on. The daily states also count reports, while these notes list developments, and a report retrieved after the record began but first reported before it is counted in the daily states and never weighed by the rule.
Each outcome is worked out by the published rule from what the loop recorded when it read the development: its outlets then, its reading, and the challenge step's verdict once that has run. The outlet grades are the loop's own.
No development first reported since the record began has been read yet.
All the working notes, including 35 readings from before it began.
The latest changes
No change has been recorded yet.
The changes page lists every change (none so far), including moves the rule set aside and any the daily check refused.
Every daily state and every change is fingerprinted
Each record's fingerprint (its SHA-256 hash) joins that day's fingerprint of all such records, and the day's fingerprint is published in a public repository on GitHub. Your browser can recompute a record's fingerprint and compare it with the published one.
Today’s daily state: Fingerprint . Fingerprint pending. Records are fingerprinted each day at 23:59 UTC.
The first day, with the starting point and the rule: Fingerprint . Fingerprint pending. Records are fingerprinted each day at 23:59 UTC.
Choose a record to check. The state and the changes are also published as data: the state and the changes, as JSON Lines.
To run a thesis of your own on this machinery, write to cberzins@uottawa.ca.