Judgments on the record

Each record states a judgment on one question and keeps it on the record as it changes: a thesis and three assessments, each with a stated confidence set before the record began and moved since only by a published rule. The numbers are stated judgments, not measured probabilities. Every daily state and every change is fingerprinted, and anyone can check a record against the fingerprint published on GitHub.

The questions

• What sets the pace of AI data centre buildout in the United States
  AI data centres · Current record · on the record since 12 October 2026, day 2 · thesis: Holds
• Where Microsoft's growth from AI comes from, and whether it pays for itself
  Microsoft · Current record · on the record since 13 October 2026, day 1 · thesis: Holds
• How Cohere grows: private AI for large organizations and governments, or the race to build the most capable models
  Cohere · Current record · on the record since 13 October 2026, day 1 · thesis: Holds

A record is listed from its first day. Each record’s method page publishes its rule word for word, with the fingerprint sealed in its first day.