Leadership Under Uncertainty
Demonstration

The strategic dashboard at work

A sample week in the project’s application for strategy work, with one user, the head of strategy at a data-centre developer. Step through five mornings to follow the process the launch paper describes, from the question the user sets to the decision they take on Friday.

The profile, the evidence and the judgments are samples written to show the design. The demonstration runs in your browser and calls no model, and the application was tried with pilot users in the first half of 2026.

Strategic dashboardSample profile · Head of strategy
5 · Deciding under authority

The morning brief · Monday

Watch

Connection waits lengthened again in the northern region, which strengthens the main view.

What happened
  • The grid operator's queue report puts the average northern wait at 38 months, up from 34. [E1]
  • Two other developers delayed southern campuses and cited power. [E2]
  • An anchor customer reported accelerator deliveries on schedule. [E3]
Why it matters

Longer waits push the northern campus later and bring the open question about building our own generation closer.

What shifted
  • Main view68% → 71%New evidence
  • The alternative if it proves wrong23% → 20%New evidence

The change record also holds 3 changes to assumptions, forecasts and indicators this morning.

5 · Deciding under authority

Decisions

No decision is due yet. Each brief is graded by the attention it needs, and Friday’s calls for a decision.

2 · Gathering and evaluating

Overnight evidence, graded

3 items
  • A2E1 · Regional grid operator, quarterly queue reportDiscriminating
    The average wait to connect a large load in the northern region rose to 38 months, from 34 a year earlier.
    Longer waits are more likely under the main view than under its rival, that capital sets the pace.
  • C3E2 · Industry newsletter
    Two other developers delayed campuses in the southern region and cited power.
    It is consistent with the main view, but second-hand, so it adds little weight on its own.
  • B2E3 · Anchor customer, procurement updateInternal
    An anchor customer's procurement team reported accelerator deliveries on schedule.
    This supports the assumption that chips are not the binding limit.

Grades follow NATO’s two six-point scales, the reliability of the source from A to F and the credibility of the information from 1 to 6.

4 · Updating

Change record

5 sealed this week
  1. MonIndicator: northern connection waitNew evidence
    The wait is 38 months against a threshold of 40. [E1]
    ·············
  2. MonAssumption A280% → 83%New evidence
    Accelerator deliveries are on schedule for an anchor customer. [E3]
    ·············
  3. MonAssumption A172% → 79%New evidence
    At 38 months and rising, waits are more likely to stay above three years. [E1]
    ·············
  4. MonThe alternative if it proves wrong23% → 20%New evidence
    Longer waits make it less likely that capital sets the pace. [E1]
    ·············
  5. MonMain view68% → 71%New evidence
    An official queue report shows waits lengthening, which the main view expects and its rival makes less likely. [E1, E2]
    ·············

Each record carries its reason and the evidence it rests on, and its fingerprint is computed in your browser. In the system each day’s fingerprints are combined into one published value, which anyone can test on the record check.

1 · Setting the question

Strategic Living Script

Drafted when the user joined
A developer and operator of large data-centre campuses in two regions
SituationOur business is building data-centre capacity fast enough to meet AI demand without stranding capital.
Forces at workThe forces that matter most are grid interconnection, the supply of large electrical equipment and how much capacity a few very large customers commit to.
TensionThe central tension is speed against certainty, because customers want capacity sooner than utilities can connect it.
Turning pointsTwo turning points are near, a ruling by the northern utility commission on a faster connection process and the point at which transformer lead times fall below eighteen months.
StanceOur stance is to secure power first and to treat chips and financing as problems we can solve.
Open questionIf grid access does not improve by the middle of 2027, do we slow phase two or build our own generation?
3 · Rolling up

Three strategic views

Main view
Stable
Grid interconnection, more than chip supply or financing, will set the pace of our two new campuses through 2027.
71%+3 today
Drivers
SupportsConnection queues lengthening in both regions
SupportsLarge-transformer lead times above eighteen months
AgainstA fast-track connection process expected in the north
Assumptions, each with the evidence that would invalidate it
A1Connection waits in both regions stay above three years through 2027.
Fails if: The northern commission approves a fast-track process with first connections before the third quarter of 2027.
A2Chip supply for our anchor customers is not the binding limit.
Fails if: An anchor customer defers a commitment before 31 March 2027 and cites the supply of accelerators.
A3On-site generation can bridge one phase and no more.
Fails if: Turbine delivery within eighteen months becomes available at a premium of 15 per cent or less before 31 March 2027.
Rival explanations
The cost of capital, more than power, sets the pace. This is the alternative view.20%
Counts against it: Financing stays near 6 per cent while connection waits keep lengthening.
Chip supply sets the pace for the largest customers.9%
Counts against it: Anchor customers keep asking for capacity sooner without citing chips.
Dated indicators
Northern commission rules on the fast-track processWaiting
Filing expected, no ruling scheduled · due before 31 March 2027
Average northern connection wait above 40 monthsMoving
38 months, up from 34 · due with the year-end report in February 2027
Large-transformer lead times below 18 monthsWaiting
24 months · due by 30 June 2027
The condition it rests on
Stable
Demand from our anchor customers stays strong enough that power, more than demand, is the limit on growth.
74%no change
The alternative if it proves wrong
Stable
If grid access eases, the cost of capital sets the pace instead, and phase two goes ahead only while financing stays below 7 per cent.
20%−3 today
4 · Updating

Dated forecasts

Scored when they resolve
  • Will the northern commission approve the fast-track process by 31 March 2027?35%
  • Will large-transformer lead times be under 18 months by 30 June 2027?25%
  • Will a lender quote above 7 per cent for phase two before 31 March 2027?20%
3 · Rolling up

Assumption map

Importance against confidence
Probe firstMore confident it holds →More important →A1A2A3A4A5
  • A1 Connection waits in both regions stay above three years through 2027.
  • A2 Chip supply for our anchor customers is not the binding limit.
  • A3 On-site generation can bridge one phase and no more.
  • A4 Phase-two financing stays below 7 per cent.
  • A5 Anchor customers keep committing a year or more ahead.
5 · Deciding under authority

Watch, explore, act

Sorted by the attention each needs
Watch2
Northern connection waits
Transformer lead times
Explore0
Nothing here
Act0
Nothing here
How to read it

Each panel shows one stage of the process

The stages are those of Figure 1 of the launch paper. Select a stage above the dashboard to go to the panel that shows it.

  1. Stage 1
    Setting the question
    The Strategic Living Script states the user’s situation and the open question, and it decides what the system reads and how each view is framed.
  2. Stage 2
    Gathering and evaluating
    Each item is graded for the reliability of its source and the credibility of its information. On Tuesday three reports trace to one press release and are counted once.
  3. Stage 3
    Rolling up
    Three views hold the main judgment, the condition it rests on and the alternative if it proves wrong. Each has drivers and assumptions, with rival explanations and dated indicators where they apply.
  4. Stage 4
    Updating
    A view’s confidence moves only on evidence that distinguishes between the explanations, and every change to a view, assumption or forecast is recorded with its reason and fingerprinted.
  5. Stage 5
    Deciding under authority
    The brief grades each morning by the attention it needs, and on Friday it calls for a decision. The system sets out what each option depends on, and the user decides.

In the application the same structure is built to be filled each night from news, data, research and the user’s own documents, with each judgment dated and sealed. The launch paper’s decision study would test whether this process improves the decisions of AI agents, and an extension would test decisions that practitioners take from its outputs.

See the other productsRead the launch paperTake part