The numbers are stated judgments. The record began on 13 October 2026 with starting confidences that the system set from the previous three weeks of reports, and a published rule has made every change since. They are not measured probabilities. The question and the rule are fixed before the record begins, and each change shows its evidence and its reasons. The rule and what is not claimed are on the method page.

Main assessment

Businesses across many industries, paying for AI in Azure and in Microsoft 365, are the main source of Microsoft's AI growth through 2027, ahead of OpenAI and the other AI model developers that rent its computing capacity, and ahead of consumers.

67.5% stated confidence, Likely (55–80%). Starting point on the record’s first day: Likely (55–80%), 67.5 per cent. Attention level: For information. Trend: Steady.

Key judgment

The judgment as stated before the record began

Microsoft earns from businesses' use of AI in two main ways: through computing and AI services in Azure, its cloud platform, and through Copilot and AI agents built into Microsoft 365 and its other business software. A large share of the new business it has signed, however, comes from AI model developers, the companies such as OpenAI that build AI models and rent computing capacity on a scale no ordinary business approaches. This assessment holds that businesses across many industries remain the larger source of growth. It would weaken if Microsoft's contracted business outside OpenAI stopped growing, if OpenAI came to account for most of the growth in Azure, or if paid use of Copilot stalled while AI model developers kept signing large commitments.

Starting point

How the record started this assessment

On 13 October 2026, before the record began, the system read the 10 developments below and chose Likely (55–80%). The record started the assessment at the middle of that range, 67.5 per cent. The reading is kept in the first day's record.

Its reason, machine-written by anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.6: Azure crossing $100 billion and growing at 43% in fiscal Q4 2026 (developments 1, 3, 5) points to broad cloud demand well beyond any single customer. Development 7 raises a concern about OpenAI's weight in that growth, and development 8 notes a looser OpenAI alliance, but the scale of Azure's overall trajectory and the absence of evidence that a few model developers dominate the revenue base keeps the broad-business story intact. What was widely known before these developments, that Microsoft 365 Copilot seats were spreading across enterprises, reinforces the assessment without tipping it to very likely.

1. First reported 9 October 2026, 2 outlets. Cited by the reading.
“Azure Tops $100B as Cloud Growth Accelerates | TMC Insight” · insight.tmcnet.com · 9 October 2026 · Open the report
“Azure Surpasses $100 Billion as Microsoft Capital Expenditures Hit $116 Billion - Time News” · time.news · 10 October 2026 · Open the report
2. First reported 13 October 2026, 1 outlet.
“Broadcom CEO follows a proven blueprint for labs buying its chips” · finance.yahoo.com · 13 October 2026 · Open the report
3. First reported 10 October 2026, 1 outlet. Cited by the reading.
“Microsoft's Azure grew 43% in fiscal Q4 2026 as AI capex hit $41 billion — LeoDex News” · news.leodex.io · 10 October 2026 · Open the report
4. First reported 6 October 2026, 1 outlet.
“Wrtn Azure OpenAI Service Customer Story - The Data Pros” · the-data-pros.net · 6 October 2026 · Open the report
5. First reported 4 October 2026, 1 outlet. Cited by the reading.
“AI Drives Microsoft Revenue Growth as Azure Surpasses $100 Billion ~ Nippon Business” · nipponbusiness.com · 4 October 2026 · Open the report
6. First reported 2 October 2026, 1 outlet.
“SpaceXAI plans to switch on about 420,000 Nvidia GPUs in November” · cryptobriefing.com · 2 October 2026 · Open the report
7. First reported 2 October 2026, 1 outlet. Cited by the reading.
“Microsoft's Rally Rests on a Customer That Owes It $6 Billion and Just Moved Into Amazon's Cloud · The Inference” · theinference.org · 2 October 2026 · Open the report
8. First reported 1 October 2026, 1 outlet. Cited by the reading.
“Microsoft and OpenAI Rewrite Their AI Alliance: Freedom, Caps and a Looser Bond” · webpronews.com · 1 October 2026 · Open the report
9. First reported 1 October 2026, 1 outlet.
“OpenAI reportedly seeks $30 billion after delaying IPO” · rdworldonline.com · 1 October 2026 · Open the report
10. First reported 26 September 2026, 1 outlet.
“Anthropic Secures $11.6 Billion, 7-Year GPU Cloud Deal With Akamai” · webpronews.com · 26 September 2026 · Open the report

Uncertainty

Causes of uncertainty

Microsoft does not report its revenue from AI as a regular separate figure, so the sources of its AI growth have to be read from Azure, Copilot and contracted-business figures that also include other business.
Microsoft has disclosed its revenue from OpenAI only in its annual report, as a single figure that includes OpenAI's revenue-sharing payments as well as payment for computing.
From fiscal year 2027, which began in July 2026, Microsoft reports its business in two new segments and counts less of it as Azure, so figures from before and after the change need care when compared.
Demand for Azure has exceeded the capacity Microsoft has available, so its growth reflects how fast Microsoft can build as well as how much each kind of customer wants.

What would change it

What would change the judgment

Microsoft reporting that its contracted business outside OpenAI has stopped growing.
Microsoft's annual report showing that OpenAI accounted for more than half of the year's growth in Azure.
Paid Copilot seats holding flat for two quarters while AI model developers sign large new commitments for Azure capacity.

Causal factors

The causal factors, and which way each one cuts

Factor	Which way it cuts	What evidence looks like	Last moved
M1. Azure growth spread across many customers How fast Azure revenue grows, and how widely Microsoft and its customers describe that growth as spread across industries, sizes of company and regions. Fast growth spread across many customers supports the assessment.	Supports. A stronger factor supports the assessment.	An earnings release reports faster year-over-year growth in Azure revenue. Microsoft describes demand for Azure as broad across industries and regions on its earnings call. A large company outside the AI industry announces a multiyear commitment to run its AI work on Azure.	Not yet
M2. Paid Microsoft 365 Copilot seats The number of paid Microsoft 365 Copilot seats that Microsoft reports, and the number of employers paying for Copilot for most of their staff. More paid seats across more employers supports the assessment.	Supports. A stronger factor supports the assessment.	Microsoft reports a higher count of paid Microsoft 365 Copilot seats. A large employer announces that it is giving Microsoft 365 Copilot to all or most of its staff. Microsoft reports more customers with very large Copilot deployments.	Not yet
M3. Contracted business from customers other than OpenAI Revenue that customers other than OpenAI have committed to under contract and Microsoft has not yet recognized, which Microsoft reports on its earnings calls as growth in its commercial remaining performance obligation excluding OpenAI. Growth shows broad business demand arriving ahead of revenue.	Supports. A stronger factor supports the assessment.	Microsoft reports faster growth in its commercial remaining performance obligation excluding OpenAI. Microsoft announces a large multiyear cloud agreement with a company outside the AI industry.	Not yet
M4. Growth that rests on a few AI model developers The share of Microsoft's AI revenue and contracted business that comes from a few AI model developers, OpenAI above all. A larger share undercuts the assessment, because more of the growth then depends on a few customers.	Weakens. A stronger factor weakens the assessment.	Microsoft discloses more revenue from OpenAI, or a larger share of its contracted business from OpenAI. An AI model developer signs a large new commitment for Azure capacity. An AI model developer moves work from Azure to another cloud provider, which bears on the factor in the other direction.	Not yet
M5. Consumer AI growth at Microsoft Growth in what consumers pay Microsoft for AI, and in the advertising revenue AI brings, through the Copilot app, AI in Bing search and AI features in consumer Microsoft 365 subscriptions. Strong consumer growth undercuts the assessment.	Weakens. A stronger factor weakens the assessment.	Microsoft reports faster growth in consumer Microsoft 365 subscriptions and links it to AI features. Microsoft reports growth in search advertising that it links to AI in Bing or the Copilot app. Microsoft reports a large rise in paying users of its consumer Copilot app.	Not yet

Assumptions

What the assessment assumes, and what would break it

MA1. Customers other than OpenAI keep adding to the business they have contracted with Microsoft.
Linchpin.
Invalidated if, on two consecutive quarterly earnings calls, Microsoft reports that its commercial remaining performance obligation excluding OpenAI, meaning the revenue that customers other than OpenAI have committed to under contract and Microsoft has not yet recognized, was lower than a year earlier. If Microsoft stops reporting the figure excluding OpenAI, the assumption is reviewed rather than invalidated.
Source: Microsoft Investor Relations, transcript of the earnings call for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2026, which reports growth in commercial remaining performance obligation excluding OpenAI, Microsoft Investor Relations, earnings releases, webcasts and call transcripts. The criterion’s fingerprint was fixed on 13 October 2026 and is part of the record’s first day.
MA2. OpenAI accounts for less than half of the growth in Microsoft's Azure revenue.
Bridge.
Invalidated if the increase from fiscal year 2026 to fiscal year 2027 in revenue from commercial arrangements with OpenAI, a figure that includes OpenAI's revenue-sharing payments, as disclosed in the notes to Microsoft's annual reports on Form 10-K, is more than half the increase in Azure revenue over the same two fiscal years, with Azure revenue taken as Microsoft reports it under the definition it adopted for fiscal year 2027. Microsoft's fiscal year runs from July to June. If Microsoft stops disclosing either figure, the assumption is reviewed rather than invalidated.
Source: Microsoft annual report on Form 10-K for fiscal year 2026, note on accounting policies, which discloses revenue from commercial arrangements with OpenAI, Microsoft, Form 8-K of September 2026, presentation on fiscal year 2027 segments and metrics, with Azure revenue restated under the new definition, SEC EDGAR, Microsoft's quarterly and annual reports (CIK 789019). The criterion’s fingerprint was fixed on 13 October 2026 and is part of the record’s first day.
MA3. Consumer AI remains a small part of Microsoft's growth from AI.
Background.
Invalidated if, in two consecutive quarters, revenue in Microsoft's Devices and Consumer segment rises by a larger amount year over year than revenue in its Agents and Infra segment, as reported in the segment information of its quarterly report on Form 10-Q or annual report on Form 10-K. If Microsoft changes these segments, the assumption is reviewed rather than invalidated.
Source: Microsoft, Form 8-K of September 2026, presentation on the Agents and Infra and Devices and Consumer segments from fiscal year 2027, SEC EDGAR, Microsoft's quarterly and annual reports (CIK 789019). The criterion’s fingerprint was fixed on 13 October 2026 and is part of the record’s first day.

Alternatives

The rival explanations

Evidence moves the assessment only when it bears differently on the assessment than on at least one of these. Evidence that fits them equally carries no weight.

MX1. AI model developers, OpenAI above all, are the main source of Microsoft's AI growth, so that growth rises and falls with a few customers.
No development was recorded on this assessment in the last 7 days.
Favoured by:
- Microsoft's contracted business keeps rising quickly while the part outside OpenAI grows slowly.
- Microsoft's annual report shows revenue from OpenAI growing faster than Azure.
- AI model developers account for the largest new commitments for Azure capacity.
Ruled out by:
- Azure keeps growing quickly while AI model developers move work to other cloud providers.
- Revenue from OpenAI grows more slowly than Azure over a full fiscal year.
MX2. Consumers become a major source of Microsoft's AI growth, through the Copilot app, search advertising and AI in consumer subscriptions.
No development was recorded on this assessment in the last 7 days.
Favoured by:
- Microsoft reports that consumer products contributed a large part of its growth in AI revenue.
- Revenue in the Devices and Consumer segment grows faster than revenue in the Agents and Infra segment, and Microsoft links the difference to AI.
Ruled out by:
- Consumer revenue growth slows while business cloud revenue keeps growing quickly.

A development is recorded when the rule applies it to the assessment or sets it aside. Each count comes from the readings sealed with the changes, and a development set aside as fitting every alternative equally tells no alternative apart.

Evidence

Evidence behind changes in the last 30 days

Each item is a report or data series cited by a sealed change on this assessment. The update loop reads headlines and summaries, and no summary is shown as the evidence.

No evidence has been cited in the last 30 days.

Considered, set aside

Evidence considered and set aside

Developments the update loop read in the last 30 days and set aside because they fitted this assessment and each of its alternatives equally. Under the rule such evidence carries no weight, so none of it moved anything.

Nothing on this assessment was set aside in the last 30 days.

Changes

Changes to this assessment

No change to this assessment yet.

The other assessments

The rest of the judgment

The question’s text on this page is as sealed on the record’s first day. Fingerprint . Fingerprint pending. Records are fingerprinted each day at 23:59 UTC.