LIVERESEARCH PREVIEW · REFERENCE RUN #002
The AI Policy & Economy Delta Feed
Tracks how AI policy, macro conditions, and market structure co-move — which regulatory and economic assumptions are becoming fragile, and how shifts propagate.
Machine-generated strategic judgment: every claim is dated, falsifiable, and cryptographically sealed at birth, then adjudicated in public against open data — failures published alongside hits.
Reality's checks so far: 0 for, 1 against, 0 timed out, 10 pending. We publish the against column.
Signpost checks adjudicate individual observations; the insight-level track record (below) publishes only when whole calls resolve — currently forming. Counts are unique questions (26 raw checks deduplicated).
Explore the claims
Each card is a distinct claim, leading with what would prove it wrong. Pick your seat to re-lens the decision implications, or use the filters below.
Verified track record
Every insight is pre-registered with a falsification threshold and sealed at birth; resolutions are sealed too. Public tier reflects calls resolved ≥ 7 days ago.
The scorecard is earned, not written
Signposts adjudicated so far
1 signpost checks have adjudicated (0 for, 1 against, 0 timed out). None of them yet meets our scoring standard, so the scored record is still empty. A trip counts only when it was adjudicated mechanically against the evidence spine or by an independent judge — these were matched by an earlier keyword-overlap method we no longer treat as sound. Insight-level resolutions publish here automatically once a verdict seals under the current rule and the 7-day public delay elapses.
What these numbers do and don't say
Signpost tallies and claim counts are a snapshot generated Jul 23, 2026 — 3 days ago, and are out of date. They are read from the downloadable export bundle below, which is refreshed by commit, not continuously. The scorecard above is read live. Where the two disagree, the live figure at /api/v1/public/ai-compute/track-record is authoritative.
Verify it yourself
Don't take the page's word for the portfolio. The claim, signpost, delta, and track-record files rendering this page are published below with SHA-256 digests; your browser can re-verify them right now. (The House View's synthesis file sits outside this manifest today — that's stated where it renders.)
In-browser verification needs a secure context (HTTPS). Download a file and hash it locally instead.
| File | Rows | SHA-256 | Verify |
|---|---|---|---|
| insights-active.jsonl | 18 | 2d3004e18f8d2a44… | |
| insights-active.csv | 18 | e58f0a0a675144ab… | |
| insights-deltas.jsonl | 0 | e3b0c44298fc1c14… | |
| insights-signposts.jsonl | 26 | 20d5aaa7d7e56007… | |
| insights-resolved.jsonl | 0 | e3b0c44298fc1c14… | |
| track-record.json | 0 | 3445b4c3766f2fe9… | |
| entity-crosswalk.jsonl | 299 | 0f2b63c6b506a3c8… | |
| entity-crosswalk.csv | 299 | cc3e1ee97458ad19… |
A mismatch usually means a mid-deploy cache; retry in a minute, then inspect. The offline path for professionals:
npx tsx scripts/verify-insight-pack.ts <pack.json>Each seal chains SHA-256 → daily Merkle root → public anchor.