LIVERESEARCH PREVIEW · REFERENCE RUN #002
The AI Policy & Economy Delta Feed
Tracks how AI policy, macro conditions, and market structure co-move — which regulatory and economic assumptions are becoming fragile, and how shifts propagate.
Machine-generated strategic judgment: every claim is dated, falsifiable, and cryptographically sealed at birth, then adjudicated in public against open data — failures published alongside hits.
Reality's checks so far: 0 for, 1 against, 0 timed out, 7 pending. We publish the against column.
Signpost checks adjudicate individual observations; the insight-level track record (below) publishes only when whole calls resolve — currently forming. Counts are unique questions (8 raw checks deduplicated).
Explore the claims
Each card is a distinct claim, leading with what would prove it wrong. Pick your seat to re-lens the decision implications, or use the filters below.
Verified track record
Early sample (n = 1). The 90% confidence intervals are wide by design and harden as more calls resolve.
| Call | Conviction | Verdict | Resolved | Resolution seal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVIDIA Megatron-LM commit activity exceeds normal range by 3.14 standard deviations | 61% | falsified | Aug 7, 2026 | d4b018b2d3c7… |
What these numbers do and don't say
Signpost tallies and claim counts are a snapshot generated Jul 28, 2026 — 19 days ago, and are out of date. They are read from the downloadable export bundle below, which is refreshed by commit, not continuously. The scorecard above is read live. Where the two disagree, the live figure at /api/v1/public/ai-compute/track-record is authoritative.
Withdrawn resolution criteria: 6 across 6 open calls. Between 2026-07-28 and 2026-08-15 we withdrew 6 machine-checkable resolution criteria across 6 open calls, before any of them resolved. Most were sigma-anomaly tests over hourly US grid demand — a comparison that cannot separate the claim being tested from summer air-conditioning load and the daily demand cycle. Two independent errors: the criteria had no stable operating characteristic (one pair's confirming side would have fired on 0.44% of scans measured on 2026-07-10 and 11.65% on 2026-07-25, with the falsifying side moving the opposite way, on an unchanged thesis), and a "3 sigma" criterion scanned hourly for 30 days offers 526 chances to fire, so it has roughly a 51% chance of firing on noise alone against the 0.135% its label implies. The affected calls remain open and visible; they are not scored, and they stay in the denominator. The withdrawal rule is arithmetic that was available on the day each criterion was sealed, was applied to every criterion that failed it regardless of which way it was trending, and was recorded while the resolution monitors were disabled — so the sealed record shows the withdrawals preceded any outcome.
Verify it yourself
Don't take the page's word for the portfolio. The claim, signpost, delta, and track-record files rendering this page are published below with SHA-256 digests; your browser can re-verify them right now. (The House View's synthesis file sits outside this manifest today — that's stated where it renders.)
In-browser verification needs a secure context (HTTPS). Download a file and hash it locally instead.
| File | Rows | SHA-256 | Verify |
|---|---|---|---|
| insights-active.jsonl | 8 | f46924f2bce6a651… | |
| insights-active.csv | 8 | a0efef18f29e9ab8… | |
| insights-deltas.jsonl | 0 | e3b0c44298fc1c14… | |
| insights-signposts.jsonl | 8 | a9e3f14b2671c530… | |
| insights-resolved.jsonl | 0 | e3b0c44298fc1c14… | |
| track-record.json | 0 | 7bb420c40545bb6b… | |
| entity-crosswalk.jsonl | 299 | 0f2b63c6b506a3c8… | |
| entity-crosswalk.csv | 299 | cc3e1ee97458ad19… | |
| insights-computation.jsonl | 0 | e3b0c44298fc1c14… |
A mismatch usually means a mid-deploy cache; retry in a minute, then inspect. The offline path for professionals:
npx tsx scripts/verify-insight-pack.ts <pack.json>Each seal chains SHA-256 → daily Merkle root → public anchor.