description: Two more independent sources contradict assumption "The EU AI Act's GPAI obligations take effect on the published schedule without material delay" within 21 days.

expected_direction: supports

outcome: waiting


description: New supporting evidence for "The EU AI Act's GPAI obligations take effect on the published schedule without material delay" arrives in the next 14 days from a high-credibility source.

expected_direction: falsifies


description: Two more independent sources contradict assumption "No US federal statute preempts state AI law before end-2026, leaving the patchwork intact" within 21 days.


description: New supporting evidence for "No US federal statute preempts state AI law before end-2026, leaving the patchwork intact" arrives in the next 14 days from a high-credibility source.


description: Two more independent sources contradict assumption "US grid can absorb data-center load growth through 2027 without material curtailment or moratoria" within 21 days.


description: Proxy eia.miso.demand_hourly_mw keeps breaching above its 90-day baseline (≥3σ) over the next 30 days — assumption remains under pressure.


description: Proxy eia.miso.demand_hourly_mw reverts to within 1σ of its 90-day baseline within 21 days — the pressure on the assumption relaxes.


description: New supporting evidence for "US grid can absorb data-center load growth through 2027 without material curtailment or moratoria" arrives in the next 14 days from a high-credibility source.


description: Second-order mechanism confirms: leading indicator OpenAlex AI research output (30d papers) moves above baseline (≥2.5σ) within 30 days — Portfolio decisions built on regulatory timing will face coordinated invalidation as both EU and US timelines slip.


description: Second-order mechanism confirms: leading indicator PJM interconnection grid demand (power-constraint spread) moves above baseline (≥2.5σ) within 30 days — AI capex decisions will face dual constraint from regulatory uncertainty and grid capacity limits.