← All proof

Live anchored forecasting tournament

Real forecasts on real prediction markets. Each one was cryptographically anchored on a public GitHub commit at the time it was made — verifiable proof it existed before the outcome was known. We show the system's Brier vs. the market price's Brier for every resolved question.

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How this is built

  1. The system pulls open questions from Manifold, Polymarket, and Metaculus every 6 hours.
  2. It generates a probability forecast and a structured rationale (SCO-DA artifact).
  3. The artifact is hashed (SHA-256), included in that day's Merkle tree, and the tree root is committed to a public GitHub repo (see /credibility).
  4. When the market resolves, the system records the outcome and computes Brier scores for both the system forecast and the market price at forecast time.
  5. The "Brier advantage" is the difference between the market's Brier and the system's — positive means the system was more accurate.

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