/proof › RR-001 scoreboard › H1
Hypothesis H1
WordingOur 30-day calibration is at or better than Manifold/Metaculus median on shared questions
Falsification threshold
Median Brier on resolved markets exceeds market median Brier by >0.05Current statuspending
Evidence summaryAwaiting evaluator run
Pre-disclosed expected outcome (honesty disclosure):
Likely inconclusive or falsified — public prediction markets are hard to beat on raw Brier; this is not where we lead.
Likely inconclusive or falsified — public prediction markets are hard to beat on raw Brier; this is not where we lead.
How this hypothesis resolves
The threshold above is the pre-registered falsification rule. Once the evaluator runs (per the schedule in the protocol document), the `currentStatus` column on `reference_run_hypotheses` updates and this page reflects the verdict. All evaluator runs are cryptographically sealed via the daily Merkle anchor.
Source of truth
- Schema:
reference_run_hypotheses(migration 0104) - Evaluator:
lib/referenceRun/hypothesisEvaluator.ts - Writer:
DrizzleHypothesisDbWriterinlib/referenceRun/dbWriters.ts - Locked wording:
LOCKED_HYPOTHESESinlib/referenceRun/hypothesisEvaluator.ts