Track your calibration and compete with fellow forecasters
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Tier Requirements
Grandmaster
500+ predictions
Brier ≤ 0.15
Master
250+ predictions
Brier ≤ 0.18
Expert
100+ predictions
Brier ≤ 0.22
Journeyman
50+ predictions
Brier ≤ 0.28
Apprentice
10+ predictions
Brier ≤ 0.35
Novice
0+ predictions
Brier ≤ 1
What is a Brier Score?
The Brier score measures the accuracy of probabilistic predictions. It ranges from 0 to 1, where 0 is perfect accuracy and 1 is worst possible. A score of 0.25 represents random guessing. Lower scores mean better calibration - your probability estimates closely match actual outcomes.