{"sequence":0,"dateKey":"2026-10-15","day":0,"recordedAt":"2026-10-15T10:48:39.758Z","recordedLate":false,"fingerprint":"76fecd83e9b582b622dead15eb6753900c843a5234a774a080c801cdbde6b11a","previousFingerprint":null,"fingerprintStatus":{"kind":"pending"},"hashVerified":true,"withheld":false,"inclusion":null,"record":{"day":0,"asOf":"2026-10-15T10:48:39.758Z","day0":{"author":{"scope":{"horizon":"2027-12-31","inScope":["Connection of large new loads to the US grid, and the queues, studies and network upgrades that connection requires","How utilities and state regulators treat large new loads, including special tariffs, deposits and pauses on new connections","Lead times for the equipment that delivers power to a campus, such as large transformers, switchgear and gas turbines","Capital spending by the largest US cloud companies, as filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission","Debt, lease and joint-venture financing for data centre campuses","Signs that demand for AI computing, rather than power, sets the pace, such as slowing capital spending, cancellations that cite demand and falling rental prices for accelerators"],"question":"Through the end of 2027, what sets the pace at which AI data centres are built and connected to power in the United States?","geography":"United States","outOfScope":["Data centre buildout outside the United States","Cross-border trade and technology policy","The capabilities of AI models and questions of AI safety","Investment advice about any company"]},"title":"What sets the pace of AI data centre buildout in the United States","schema":"judgment-demo.author-file.v2","status":"ready","thesis":{"statement":"Through 2027, access to grid power and interconnection, rather than the supply of accelerators or the availability of capital, sets the pace of AI data centre buildout in the United States.","statusRule":{"holdsMainAtLeastPct":60,"invertedMainBelowPct":40,"holdsRestsOnAtLeastPct":50}},"demoKey":"ai-compute-v2","version":1,"assessments":[{"key":"main","kind":"primary","factors":[{"key":"M1","sign":"+","title":"Waits for large grid connections","meaning":"How long a large new load waits between its request for a grid connection and energization, including the studies and network upgrades that stand in between. Longer waits mean power binds more tightly.","publicSeries":[],"evidenceLooksLike":["A utility or grid operator reports a longer study backlog or later in-service dates for large-load requests.","A state regulator publishes the volume of data centre load waiting to be connected.","A developer reports that its connection date has moved."]},{"key":"M2","sign":"+","title":"Special terms for large loads: tariffs, deposits and pauses","meaning":"Utilities and state regulators setting special terms for large new loads, such as minimum-demand charges, collateral, study deposits or pauses on new connections. These terms ration scarce connection capacity, and more of them means power binds more tightly. A pause that cites grid capacity bears on this factor. A pause that cites land use, water or noise bears on the local-permitting alternative instead.","publicSeries":[],"evidenceLooksLike":["A regulator approves a large-load tariff with minimum-demand or exit-fee provisions.","A utility or grid operator requires deposits or collateral before it studies a large load.","A state or utility pauses new large connections and cites grid capacity."]},{"key":"M3","sign":"+","title":"Projects delayed, reduced or moved because of power","meaning":"Announced delays, reductions in size or changes of site where the stated reason is the availability or timing of power.","publicSeries":[],"evidenceLooksLike":["A developer or cloud company says a campus will open later because its grid connection has slipped.","A project moves to another state or region to obtain power sooner.","A first phase is cut back to the power that will be available on opening."]},{"key":"M4","sign":"+","title":"Lead times for transformers, switchgear and turbines","meaning":"How long it takes to obtain the large equipment that delivers power to a campus. Longer lead times mean power binds more tightly, whatever the state of the grid itself.","publicSeries":[],"evidenceLooksLike":["A manufacturer or utility reports longer delivery times or sold-out capacity for large power transformers or gas turbines.","A manufacturer announces new production capacity for this equipment, which bears on the factor in the other direction."]},{"key":"M5","sign":"-","title":"Ways around the grid: on-site power, co-location and flexible load","meaning":"Arrangements that let a campus draw power sooner than a conventional grid upgrade would allow, such as generation on site, siting beside an existing power plant or agreeing to curtail load at peak times. The factor is stronger when such an arrangement is approved, offered or delivers power to a large campus, and power then binds less, even when the reason given for the arrangement is that the grid is slow. A report that a project is waiting for the grid, with no such arrangement, bears on the factors on waits and delays instead.","publicSeries":[],"evidenceLooksLike":["A regulator approves co-location of a data centre at an existing power plant.","A campus is energized on on-site generation ahead of its grid connection.","A utility offers faster connection in exchange for load that can be curtailed."]}],"statement":"Grid power and interconnection are the binding constraint on US AI data centre buildout through 2027.","assumptions":[{"key":"MA1","statement":"Requests for large grid connections in ERCOT, the US grid with the largest public queue of large-load requests, keep outrunning what can be connected.","criticality":"linchpin","criterionSources":[{"url":"https://www.ercot.com/files/docs/2026/03/12/March-TAC-Report.pdf","name":"ERCOT, Large Load Interconnection Status update in the monthly report to the Technical Advisory Committee"}],"invalidationCriterion":"Invalidated if, in three consecutive monthly Large Load Interconnection Status updates published by ERCOT, the megawatts shown as approved to energize rise from the previous update while the megawatts shown as having planning studies approved fall. If ERCOT stops publishing these figures, the assumption is reviewed rather than invalidated."},{"key":"MA2","statement":"Large power equipment stays scarce enough that delivery dates, rather than orders, limit construction.","criticality":"bridge","criterionSources":[{"url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCU335311335311","name":"US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Producer Price Index by industry, via FRED"}],"invalidationCriterion":"Invalidated if the Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price index for power, distribution and specialty transformer manufacturing (series PCU335311335311) is lower than a year earlier in two consecutive quarterly averages."},{"key":"MA3","statement":"Ways around the grid do not yet deliver large campuses at scale.","criticality":"bridge","criterionSources":[{"url":"https://www.sec.gov/edgar/search/","name":"SEC EDGAR full-text search"},{"url":"https://www.sec.gov/edgar/search/","name":"Owners' and operators' press releases, and state utility and environmental regulator filings"}],"invalidationCriterion":"Invalidated if, before the end of 2027, at least three US AI campuses first energized after 4 October 2026 are stated by their owner or operator (in an SEC filing, a press release, or a filing with a state utility or environmental regulator) to be operating at 500 MW or more, mainly on generation on the site or at an adjacent power plant."}],"keyJudgment":"The scarcest input for a new US AI data centre through 2027 is a firm grid connection of the size it needs, at the time it needs it. Accelerators and financing can usually be arranged within months. Transmission upgrades, interconnection studies and large power equipment take years, and the order in which projects receive them is set by utilities, grid operators and regulators rather than by the buyers. The assessment would weaken if power stopped being the reason given when projects slip, or if on-site generation and flexible-load agreements began to deliver large campuses on schedule.","publicLabel":"Main assessment","alternatives":[{"key":"MX1","statement":"The supply of advanced packaging and high-bandwidth memory is the binding constraint: accelerators cannot be produced fast enough, so connected power waits for chips.","favouredBy":["The largest spenders say capacity is limited by the allocation of accelerators or memory rather than by power.","Energized data centre space is reported as waiting for hardware.","Accelerator makers report that they cannot meet orders into 2027."],"ruledOutBy":["Lead times for accelerators shorten while projects keep slipping for power.","Packaging and memory suppliers report inventory building up."]},{"key":"MX2","statement":"Capital is the binding constraint: the cost and availability of financing set the pace, and power follows money.","favouredBy":["Projects are paused or cancelled citing the cost of financing.","Data centre debt is repriced or pulled from the market.","Spending outlooks are cut while power is available."],"ruledOutBy":["Financing closes on schedule while energization dates slip."]},{"key":"MX3","statement":"Local permitting and community opposition, rather than grid capacity, is what slows buildout.","favouredBy":["Pauses and zoning refusals cite land use, water or noise rather than grid capacity.","Projects that have secured power are held up by local approval."],"ruledOutBy":["Projects with local approval wait for a grid connection."]},{"key":"MXC","statement":"Demand for AI computing sets the pace of US AI data centre buildout through 2027, with the largest spenders building as fast as the revenue AI earns justifies.","contingent":true,"favouredBy":["The largest spenders cut or slow capital spending while their projects are reported to have power available.","Projects are paused, cancelled or deferred citing demand, returns or overcapacity rather than power.","Rental prices for accelerators fall across the major providers while new campuses still find power."],"ruledOutBy":["The largest spenders keep raising capital spending while their projects keep slipping for power."]}],"causesOfUncertainty":["Utilities and grid operators report requests for large connections in different ways, and a lengthening queue can reflect speculative or duplicate requests rather than real projects.","Most of the evidence arrives as news reports of announcements. An announced delay or an announced workaround is weaker evidence than a completed project.","On-site generation and co-location could relieve the constraint faster than grid upgrades, and their scale is not yet visible in public data."],"whatWouldChangeOurMind":["Several large campuses energized on or ahead of schedule without new transmission, using on-site generation or flexible-load agreements.","Utilities in the leading data centre markets reporting that large new loads are studied and connected within a year.","The largest spenders attributing their delays to the supply of accelerators or memory rather than to power."]},{"key":"rests_on","kind":"secondary","factors":[{"key":"R1","sign":"+","title":"Quarterly capital spending by the largest US cloud companies","meaning":"Payments for property and equipment by Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Oracle, as filed with the SEC each quarter. Growth means demand keeps pressing on power.","publicSeries":[{"note":"SEC XBRL concept PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment. Some periods are year to date, so quarters are differenced, and the fourth quarter is the annual figure less nine months.","metricKey":"sec.xbrl.microsoft.ppe_acquisitions_usd"},{"note":"SEC XBRL concept PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment. Some periods are year to date, so quarters are differenced, and the fourth quarter is the annual figure less nine months.","metricKey":"sec.xbrl.alphabet.ppe_acquisitions_usd"},{"note":"SEC XBRL concept PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets, which Amazon uses in place of PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment. Amazon reports quarters directly.","metricKey":"sec.xbrl.amazon.ppe_acquisitions_usd"},{"note":"SEC XBRL concept PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment. Some periods are year to date, so quarters are differenced, and the fourth quarter is the annual figure less nine months.","metricKey":"sec.xbrl.meta.ppe_acquisitions_usd"},{"note":"SEC XBRL concept PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment. Oracle's fiscal quarters end in August, November, February and May, a month before the calendar quarter-ends.","metricKey":"sec.xbrl.oracle.ppe_acquisitions_usd"}],"evidenceLooksLike":["A 10-Q or 10-K showing year-over-year growth in payments for property and equipment.","An earnings release reporting quarterly capital expenditure."]},{"key":"R2","sign":"+","title":"Capital spending outlook","meaning":"What those companies say they will spend in the current and next fiscal year, as stated in earnings releases and on earnings calls. A raised outlook means more pressure on power, and a cut means less.","publicSeries":[],"evidenceLooksLike":["An earnings release raises the full-year capital expenditure outlook.","A company states that spending will rise again next year.","A company lowers its outlook, which bears on the factor in the other direction."]},{"key":"R3","sign":"+","title":"Financing for data centre campuses","meaning":"Debt, lease and joint-venture financing for data centre campuses, including financing arranged outside the spenders' own balance sheets. Financing that closes on schedule keeps construction going.","publicSeries":[],"evidenceLooksLike":["A bond, loan or private-credit financing closes for a named campus.","A joint venture is formed to fund a campus.","A financing is withdrawn or repriced, which bears on the factor in the other direction."]},{"key":"R4","sign":"+","title":"Leases signed but not yet started","meaning":"Data centre leases that the largest spenders have signed but that have not yet commenced, as disclosed in the notes to their quarterly filings. These are contracted buildout, and growth means demand is committed ahead of supply.","publicSeries":[],"evidenceLooksLike":["A 10-Q or 10-K discloses a larger amount of leases not yet commenced.","A company announces a long-term lease of a named campus."]},{"key":"R5","sign":"-","title":"Pauses, cancellations and lease exits","meaning":"Announced pauses, cancellations, deferrals or exits from leases by the largest spenders. More of these means demand presses less on power.","publicSeries":[],"evidenceLooksLike":["A company confirms that it has paused or cancelled a campus.","A company is reported to have walked away from signed or negotiated leases."]}],"statement":"Capital spending on AI infrastructure by the largest US cloud companies keeps rising through 2027, so demand keeps pressing on the power constraint.","assumptions":[{"key":"RA1","statement":"The largest US cloud companies keep raising capital spending year over year through 2027.","criticality":"linchpin","criterionSources":[{"url":"https://www.sec.gov/edgar/sec-api-documentation","name":"SEC EDGAR XBRL company facts"}],"invalidationCriterion":"Invalidated if the combined quarterly payments for property and equipment of Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon and Meta, as filed with the SEC (XBRL concepts PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment for Microsoft, Alphabet and Meta, and PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets for Amazon, with year-to-date figures differenced into quarters and the fourth quarter taken as the annual figure less nine months), are lower than in the same calendar quarter a year earlier for two consecutive quarters."},{"key":"RA2","statement":"The largest spenders do not cut their spending outlooks together.","criticality":"bridge","criterionSources":[{"url":"https://www.sec.gov/edgar/search/","name":"SEC EDGAR, Form 8-K earnings releases"}],"invalidationCriterion":"Invalidated if two or more of Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon and Meta lower their stated capital expenditure outlook for the current or next fiscal year within the same quarterly reporting season, as stated in the earnings release furnished on Form 8-K or on the company's earnings call, excluding changes the company attributes to accounting or to how capital expenditure is defined. A lowered midpoint counts. A narrowed range does not."},{"key":"RA3","statement":"Contracted data centre buildout keeps growing.","criticality":"bridge","criterionSources":[{"url":"https://www.sec.gov/edgar/search/","name":"SEC EDGAR, quarterly and annual filings"}],"invalidationCriterion":"Invalidated if the amounts each company discloses in its 10-Q or 10-K as leases not yet commenced at the balance-sheet date (for Amazon, the “Leases not yet commenced” row of its commitments table) fall at two or more of Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon and Meta in each of two consecutive quarters."}],"keyJudgment":"The main assessment holds only while demand keeps pressing on the grid. The clearest public measure of that pressure is what the largest cloud companies spend on property and equipment. Those figures are filed quarterly with the SEC and cannot be revised without a public filing. The assessment would weaken if spending stopped growing year over year, if several of the largest spenders cut their outlook in the same season, or if leases they have signed but not yet started began to shrink.","publicLabel":"The condition it rests on","alternatives":[{"key":"RX1","statement":"Capital spending levels off in 2026 as the largest spenders absorb capacity already built.","favouredBy":["Year-over-year growth in quarterly spending falls toward zero.","Outlooks hold spending flat.","Companies describe absorbing or digesting capacity already built."],"ruledOutBy":["Quarterly spending is still growing year over year through 2027."]},{"key":"RX2","statement":"Spending moves off the largest companies' balance sheets to AI labs and specialized providers, so their own capital spending understates the demand on power.","favouredBy":["AI labs sign large long-term capacity contracts with specialized providers.","Campuses are financed through special-purpose vehicles.","Spending is flat at the largest companies while contracted capacity elsewhere rises."],"ruledOutBy":["Contracted capacity at specialized providers falls along with the largest companies' spending."]}],"causesOfUncertainty":["Quarterly spending is uneven and includes land, buildings and equipment that are not all for AI.","A growing share of AI capacity is financed off the largest companies' balance sheets, through leases and specialized providers, so their own spending can understate demand.","Outlooks are stated as ranges and revised each quarter, and a cut can reflect timing rather than intent."],"whatWouldChangeOurMind":["Combined quarterly spending by the four largest spenders falling below the same quarter a year earlier.","Two or more of them lowering their capital spending outlook in the same reporting season.","Leases signed but not yet started shrinking for two quarters running."]},{"key":"if_wrong","kind":"contingent","factors":[{"key":"C1","sign":"+","title":"Slowing capital spending","meaning":"A slowdown in the growth of the largest spenders' capital spending, quarter on quarter or year on year. Slowing spending while power is available points to demand as the pace-setter.","publicSeries":[{"note":"The same filings as factor R1, read for deceleration rather than level.","metricKey":"sec.xbrl.microsoft.ppe_acquisitions_usd"},{"note":"The same filings as factor R1, read for deceleration rather than level.","metricKey":"sec.xbrl.meta.ppe_acquisitions_usd"}],"evidenceLooksLike":["A 10-Q showing slower year-over-year growth in payments for property and equipment.","An earnings call describing slower spending on new capacity."]},{"key":"C2","sign":"+","title":"Cancellations and deferrals that cite demand","meaning":"Projects paused, cancelled or deferred where the stated reason is demand, returns or overcapacity rather than power.","publicSeries":[],"evidenceLooksLike":["A company defers a campus and cites weaker demand or returns.","A developer reports leases cancelled for lack of tenants."]},{"key":"C3","sign":"+","title":"Falling rental prices for accelerators","meaning":"Price cuts for rented accelerator capacity at the major cloud and specialized GPU providers. Falling prices point to spare capacity, which a market paced by demand would show.","publicSeries":[{"note":"Azure retail price series for an H100-class virtual machine in a US region. The series mixes on-demand, Spot and low-priority prices, so a move may reflect the mix and not a list-price change. The on-demand Linux list price has not changed since early 2024.","metricKey":"azure.Standard_ND96isr_H100_v5.eastus.usd_per_hour"},{"note":"Azure retail price series for an H100-class virtual machine in a US region. The series mixes on-demand, Spot and low-priority prices, so a move may reflect the mix and not a list-price change. The on-demand Linux list price has not changed since early 2024.","metricKey":"azure.Standard_NC80adis_H100_v5.eastus2.usd_per_hour"}],"evidenceLooksLike":["A major cloud or GPU provider cuts its price for high-end accelerator instances.","Reports of spare accelerator capacity offered at a discount."]},{"key":"C4","sign":"+","title":"Spending cut or slowed because AI revenue lags it","meaning":"The largest spenders cutting or slowing their planned capital spending, and giving as the reason that the revenue they earn from AI has not kept pace with it. A cut made for that reason shows spending following AI revenue, which this assessment expects. Spending that keeps rising while AI revenue lags behind it shows the opposite, and weakens this assessment. The factor is the reason given for a company's spending plans as a whole. The size of the reported spending, and the fate of a single project, are separate factors.","publicSeries":[],"evidenceLooksLike":["A company lowers its capital spending outlook and says that revenue from AI has been slower to arrive than planned.","A company says it will slow spending on new capacity until revenue from AI catches up.","A company reports AI revenue growing more slowly than its capital spending and says it will keep raising that spending, which bears on the factor in the other direction."]},{"key":"C5","sign":"-","title":"Power still given as the reason for delays","meaning":"Continued reports that projects slip because of power. These mean the grid still binds, which weakens this scenario.","publicSeries":[],"evidenceLooksLike":["A developer or cloud company attributes a delay to its grid connection or to power equipment."]}],"statement":"Demand for AI computing sets the pace of US AI data centre buildout through 2027, with the largest spenders building as fast as the revenue AI earns justifies.","assumptions":[{"key":"CA1","statement":"The largest spenders pace AI capacity to the returns they can see.","criticality":"linchpin","criterionSources":[{"url":"https://www.sec.gov/edgar/sec-api-documentation","name":"SEC EDGAR XBRL company facts"}],"invalidationCriterion":"Invalidated if Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon and Meta together raise quarterly payments for property and equipment year over year in two consecutive quarters in which their combined operating income falls year over year, as filed with the SEC (XBRL concepts PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment for Microsoft, Alphabet and Meta, and PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets for Amazon, with year-to-date figures differenced into quarters and the fourth quarter taken as the annual figure less nine months, and OperatingIncomeLoss)."},{"key":"CA2","statement":"A slowdown led by demand would show in signed commitments before it shows in spending.","criticality":"bridge","criterionSources":[{"url":"https://www.sec.gov/edgar/search/","name":"SEC EDGAR, quarterly and annual filings"}],"invalidationCriterion":"Invalidated if the combined quarterly payments for property and equipment of Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon and Meta (XBRL concepts PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment for Microsoft, Alphabet and Meta, and PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets for Amazon, with year-to-date figures differenced into quarters and the fourth quarter taken as the annual figure less nine months) fall year over year in a quarter that follows two consecutive quarters in which the combined total of the amounts each company discloses in its 10-Q or 10-K as leases not yet commenced at the balance-sheet date (for Amazon, the “Leases not yet commenced” row of its commitments table) grew."}],"keyJudgment":"This is the leading alternative to the main assessment. If the grid is not the binding constraint, the most plausible pace-setter is demand. The largest spenders would build as fast as AI revenue justifies, and connection capacity would go unused when revenue disappoints. Evidence for it would appear first as slowing capital spending, cancellations that cite demand or returns, and falling rental prices for accelerators while projects still find power.","publicLabel":"The alternative","alternatives":[{"key":"CX1","statement":"Demand softens but power still binds locally: a slowdown shows up as fewer new connection requests rather than as faster completion of those already waiting.","favouredBy":["Connection queues shrink while waiting times stay long.","Spending slows in regions with spare power but not where power is scarce."],"ruledOutBy":["Waiting times for connection fall as spending slows."]},{"key":"CX2","statement":"Cheaper computation slows spending, because a falling cost per unit of AI output lets the largest spenders build less while use of AI services keeps growing.","favouredBy":["Reported growth in the use of AI services alongside slower capital spending.","The largest providers announce a falling cost per unit of AI output."],"ruledOutBy":["Use of AI services and capital spending fall together."]}],"causesOfUncertainty":["Demand and power can bind in different places at the same time, so national figures can hide a regional constraint.","Rental prices for accelerators are partly set by list prices that change rarely, so they may lag a change in demand.","A slowdown in spending can reflect cheaper computation rather than weaker demand."],"whatWouldChangeOurMind":["Several of the largest spenders cutting capital spending while their projects are reported to have power available.","Cancellations and lease exits that cite demand, returns or overcapacity rather than power.","Sustained falls in rental prices for accelerators across the major providers."]}],"predecessor":{"changes":[{"why":"The version 1 wording read both ways. AI revenue falling behind spending can be taken as a sign that cuts are coming, which supports the alternative, or as spending running ahead of revenue, which contradicts its claim that the largest spenders build as fast as the revenue AI earns justifies. The reason sealed with the first day's reading took it the second way, against the factor's own definition, and the update loop read the same report the same way.","what":"Causal factor C4 of the alternative, AI revenue falling behind spending, now reads: spending cut or slowed because AI revenue lags it. It counts the largest spenders cutting or slowing their planned spending and giving lagging AI revenue as the reason. Spending that keeps rising while AI revenue lags behind it now counts against the alternative."},{"why":"A workaround adopted because the grid is slow could be read either way: as proof that the grid binds, or as a way around it. The update loop read one such report both ways at once, saying it strengthened this factor and also made the main assessment more likely, which the factor's sign does not allow, so the reading was set aside.","what":"Causal factor M5 of the main assessment, ways around the grid, now says that an arrangement which is approved, offered or delivers power to a large campus counts as power binding less even when the reason given for it is that the grid is slow, and that a report of a project waiting for the grid, with no such arrangement, bears on the factors on waits and delays instead."},{"why":"In version 1 the alternative that demand sets the pace was not among the main assessment's own alternatives. Evidence that favoured demand over power was never weighed against the main assessment, and nothing kept the two from both being rated likely although they cannot both be right.","what":"The alternative's statement is added, word for word, to the main assessment's alternatives as MXC, and marked as the main assessment's rival."}],"demoKey":"ai-compute"},"intendedAudience":"Leaders in strategy, infrastructure and investment who follow how quickly AI computing capacity can be built in the United States, and researchers who study how a stated judgment changes when new evidence arrives."},"priors":{"main":{"logOdds":0.730888,"probabilityPct":67.5},"if_wrong":{"logOdds":-0.730888,"probabilityPct":32.5},"rests_on":{"logOdds":0.730888,"probabilityPct":67.5}},"bindings":{"goalId":"ecdc9696-0dea-5304-bf3b-f05fcfbc819a","factors":{"C1":"a6e209e4-f086-578f-b513-427becb8ee4a","C2":"e87f6c2d-8048-541e-9c9f-eb3db17ebb6a","C3":"2f63d73a-4e58-575e-969b-60aae99575d2","C4":"a6475279-c976-54ee-91b3-557eb3c24091","C5":"ca6f95cd-8826-5563-b637-e6662d2d1646","M1":"ade9e780-8fd4-5c1f-b30e-a591f7a82e5f","M2":"4fb8f647-335b-54da-9d27-ae793fc818fa","M3":"87b3b735-9211-54a4-b83a-28b4aa0ec94a","M4":"8cdd4435-8a09-593c-b220-0fbb3572b7cc","M5":"908bfa30-cc99-56e4-a651-aa6438ff5511","R1":"5aeebb5d-8844-50ee-95d4-d1815ab4793c","R2":"38fd36f2-10a8-58b1-8685-f5b7c9adc881","R3":"90d3df7d-89a4-5022-be78-7a2c133c5bf2","R4":"b11c9b71-5e95-5b43-b43d-2eb84176b359","R5":"a2ee056b-aea1-5c65-8d54-4d6c07bdb94b"},"assessments":{"main":"4f0dd8f0-099a-5b91-8220-7f73ff79342a","if_wrong":"b63c9965-05e9-57dc-b8ac-e4695e7fa0d2","rests_on":"21ef2a92-cb57-512e-bec0-0c05bf7b4f04"},"assumptions":{"CA1":"fbbaf472-80b4-5380-9a1a-448479420cbf","CA2":"4d05d958-8a33-5e25-9199-70aeca296e5d","MA1":"99b41e4a-e584-5c33-8b33-504396c1dc75","MA2":"6eeefdbb-3af3-5bc6-9afa-257195ffbe79","MA3":"6c681bbb-01b0-5f63-86ca-14316235e06f","RA1":"974e6d66-87a8-5722-b624-af4f67126f87","RA2":"6d212fa5-fea6-53cf-a5b0-6a973eac516b","RA3":"c4b98d09-ce38-583a-9358-faf5b6d617ee"},"ownerUserId":"21487273-9d0e-5d82-bf1b-235b132c7c9f","alternatives":{"CX1":"22e439ba-ad87-531d-9072-799a17c53cb5","CX2":"6efafb6e-c027-5b60-a90e-8d1b65f38aef","MX1":"deaf9916-656c-5089-a607-7af8c939bae6","MX2":"c149622a-3518-5c99-9514-d721bd74dd5e","MX3":"f8070f9d-bcef-5476-8be1-123387baf325","MXC":"15433a3b-c2cc-538d-a23e-d3870f32beab","RX1":"dbb3eb72-432c-59fa-8039-91889e23ea3e","RX2":"513c14ea-c152-5e00-8078-1ec9797ef17d"},"lensMappingId":"683e7366-e0af-5003-a2d0-0d64ca9b3500"},"startingPoint":{"model":"anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.6","method":"icd203-five-readings.v2","readAt":"2026-10-15T04:10:32.971Z","rounds":[{"checks":[{"model":"google/gemini-4-argon","ground":null,"quotes":[{"text":"FERC accepted key elements of PJM’s proposed power procurement but delayed implementation for five months and ordered revisions to ensure data centers and other large new users bear costs attributable to their demand.","report":1},{"text":"FERC suspended PJM’s planned emergency-power auction for up to five months, saying PJM had not adequately ensured that large new loads driving costs would pay their share rather than shifting costs to existing customers.","report":3}],"reason":"The reports confirm that FERC paused PJM's large-load power procurement plan for five months and ordered revisions so that data centers bear the costs attributable to their demand. This directly aligns with factor M2 regarding regulators setting special terms and pauses for large new loads to ration scarce capacity and allocate costs, supporting the assessment that grid power is the binding constraint.","earlier":null,"eventId":"7f124911-360e-4d7f-bd4b-9bed30982e81","verdict":"upheld","direction":"supports","alternative":null,"readingIndex":0,"assessmentKey":"main"},{"model":"google/gemini-4-argon","ground":null,"quotes":[{"text":"On September 29, 2026, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (“FERC”) accepted PJM Interconnection, L.L.C.’s (“PJM”) Reliability Backstop Procurement proposal (“RBP Proposal”), suspending the proposal for five months and establishing a paper hearing on three elements of the RBP Proposal: (1) cost allocation; (2) Transmission Owner (“TO”) exit provisions; and (3) Load-Serving Entity (“LSE”) collateral requirements.","report":1},{"text":"FERC Suspends PJMs Reliability Backstop. The September 30 Window Does Not Open","report":2}],"reason":"The reports confirm that on September 29, 2026, FERC accepted and suspended PJM's Reliability Backstop Procurement proposal for five months, preventing the September 30 window from opening and establishing a hearing on cost allocation, exit provisions, and collateral requirements. This directly supports the reading under factor M2, which covers regulators and grid operators setting special terms, collateral requirements, or pauses related to grid capacity and connection procurement.","earlier":null,"eventId":"7bb09305-b90e-4e14-bf71-e41c3b1f9507","verdict":"upheld","direction":"supports","alternative":null,"readingIndex":0,"assessmentKey":"main"},{"model":"google/gemini-4-argon","ground":null,"quotes":[{"text":"Duke Energy and large customers proposed North Carolina rules requiring major electricity users to cover connection costs and make minimum payments, addressing who bears the cost of data-center-driven grid expansion.","report":2},{"text":"FERC approved Duke Energy Carolinas’ tariff provisions for large-load transmission upgrades and financial security, while urging stronger safeguards against shifting data-center-related costs to existing customers.","report":4}],"reason":"The reports state that Duke Energy proposed and secured regulatory approval for special tariff provisions, minimum payments, and financial security requirements for large-load data center customers. This directly matches factor M2, which covers utilities and regulators setting special terms like minimum-demand charges and collateral for large new loads. Because a stronger M2 factor supports the main assessment and distinguishes it from the listed alternatives, the reading is upheld.","earlier":null,"eventId":"5cd6ce8e-3f25-415b-ad86-6e27a46193fd","verdict":"upheld","direction":"supports","alternative":null,"readingIndex":0,"assessmentKey":"main"},{"model":"google/gemini-4-argon","ground":"not_this_factor","quotes":[{"text":"PJM cleared two battery storage projects and a gas plant upgrade worth more than 2,100 MW under its new fast-track interconnection process.","report":4},{"text":"PJM expects projects to sign a Generation Interconnection Agreement within 10 months of submis","report":2}],"reason":"The reports state that PJM expedited the interconnection of 2.1 GW of generation capacity (two battery storage projects and a gas plant upgrade) into the grid, not large load connections (M1) or ways for a data centre campus to bypass the grid (M5). Furthermore, fast-tracking new power capacity relieves grid constraints rather than tightening them, so this development does not represent a change in M1 or M5 that supports the assessment that grid power is the binding constraint.","earlier":null,"eventId":"611cf6f8-6164-4d2d-a437-facf39356197","verdict":"disputed","direction":"supports","alternative":null,"readingIndex":0,"assessmentKey":"main"},{"model":"google/gemini-4-argon","ground":"not_this_factor","quotes":[{"text":"The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) has turned thumbs down on Oklo Inc.’s bid to get back in line for a 750-megawatt power project to PJM Interconnection’s first reformed study cycle.","report":3},{"text":"FERC’s said it found that that the company failed to provide a workable model for the full facility after receiving a chance to correct its application.","report":3}],"reason":"The reports state that a 750-MW power generation project by nuclear power company Oklo was removed from PJM's generator interconnection study cycle because Oklo failed to provide a workable model for its facility. Factor M1 concerns waits for large new loads requesting a grid connection, and Factor M3 concerns data centre projects delayed or moved because of power availability. A generator project being dropped from an interconnection queue due to an application deficiency by the developer does not represent a wait for a large load connection (M1) or a delayed data centre project (M3).","earlier":null,"eventId":"e2ddf55c-2ba8-47a8-a75f-5c75421a8179","verdict":"disputed","direction":"supports","alternative":null,"readingIndex":0,"assessmentKey":"main"},{"model":"google/gemini-4-argon","ground":"not_this_factor","quotes":[{"text":"Nokia’s CEO says energy and memory shortages are slowing data-center construction, underscoring that infrastructure constraints are limiting the pace of AI expansion.","report":1}],"reason":"The development was linked only to factor C5, which belongs to assessment if_wrong (MXC) and represents reports that power delays continue to bind, thereby undercutting MXC and supporting the main assessment. Citing energy shortages as slowing construction does not count against the main assessment that grid power is the binding constraint, and even the mention of memory shortages is not covered by the linked factor C5.","earlier":null,"eventId":"b1b86c74-603f-4cfa-a6d0-2d2d1f3bd569","verdict":"disputed","direction":"counts_against","alternative":null,"readingIndex":0,"assessmentKey":"main"},{"model":"google/gemini-4-argon","ground":null,"quotes":[{"text":"Alphabet Signals More AI Spending After $80.6 Billion First-Half Outlay","report":1},{"text":"Alphabet signaled a significant increase in capital expenditure in 2027 after spending $80.6 billion in the first half of 2026","report":1}],"reason":"Report 1 explicitly states that Alphabet, one of the largest US cloud companies, spent $80.6 billion in the first half of 2026 and signaled a significant increase in capital expenditure in 2027. This directly reflects strong current capital spending (factor R1) and a rising capital spending outlook (factor R2), supporting the assessment over alternatives RX1 and RX2.","earlier":null,"eventId":"b483ac4a-eefb-4307-a9a9-1de5ef50defd","verdict":"upheld","direction":"supports","alternative":null,"readingIndex":0,"assessmentKey":"rests_on"},{"model":"google/gemini-4-argon","ground":null,"quotes":[{"text":"Alphabets Google Cloud Is Surging at 82%, and the Heavy Spending Is Starting to Make Sense","report":1},{"text":"The report says Alphabet guided to $195–205 billion in 2026 capital expenditure and cited strong cloud demand and a large backlog, while noting that supply is limiting its ability to meet demand.","report":1}],"reason":"The report directly states that Alphabet guided to $195–205 billion in 2026 capital expenditure, driven by strong cloud demand and a large backlog. This provides evidence of a large US cloud company's capital spending outlook (factor R2) supporting continued high spending rather than leveling off or moving off-balance-sheet.","earlier":null,"eventId":"b08c39f5-1742-4c99-8188-40fe45e14c2c","verdict":"upheld","direction":"supports","alternative":null,"readingIndex":0,"assessmentKey":"rests_on"},{"model":"google/gemini-4-argon","ground":null,"quotes":[{"text":"AWS CEO Matt Garman defends AI spending with a spread-out customer base","report":1},{"text":"the company plans roughly $220 billion in 2026 capital spending","report":1},{"text":"Amazon Web Services is about to spend an enormous amount of money on AI infrastructure.","report":1}],"reason":"Report 1 directly states that AWS CEO Matt Garman is defending massive AI infrastructure expenditure as Amazon plans roughly $220 billion in 2026 capital spending. This confirms rising capital spending on AI infrastructure by one of the largest US cloud companies, supporting the assessment and directly countering the alternatives of flat or off-balance-sheet spending.","earlier":null,"eventId":"b9496c16-0306-41cb-b910-0d5a49b17dc7","verdict":"upheld","direction":"supports","alternative":null,"readingIndex":0,"assessmentKey":"rests_on"},{"model":"google/gemini-4-argon","ground":null,"quotes":[{"text":"Distress Watch: Data Center Debt Selloff Snags AI Buildouts","report":1},{"text":"Bloomberg Law reports that data-center debt is selling off amid heightened scrutiny, including concerns about permitting delays, adding financing risk to AI infrastructure expansion.","report":1}],"reason":"Report 1 explicitly states that a selloff in data center debt is snagging AI buildouts and adding financing risk to AI infrastructure expansion. This directly reflects friction in debt financing for data center campuses (Factor R3), where withdrawn or repriced financing bears against the factor, and thus counts against the assessment.","earlier":null,"eventId":"95e7aa7f-2c57-4243-a073-8a2a75e6ede8","verdict":"upheld","direction":"counts_against","alternative":null,"readingIndex":0,"assessmentKey":"rests_on"},{"model":"google/gemini-4-argon","ground":null,"quotes":[{"text":"Oracles $Multi-Billion AI Data Center in Wisconsin Faces Years of Delays Over Power Grid Approvals","report":1},{"text":"PSC wipes out 10 months of progress on Oracles 1.3 GW Wisconsin data center — pushing partial 310 MW power to late 2027 and full load to 2029","report":2}],"reason":"The reports explicitly state that Oracle's 1.3 GW AI data center in Wisconsin faces years of delays due to power grid and transmission infrastructure approvals, pushing partial power to late 2027 and full load to 2029. This directly strengthens factor C5 (Power still given as the reason for delays), which undercuts the assessment that demand sets the pace of buildout rather than grid power.","earlier":null,"eventId":"1f21f3b9-2467-460b-af59-3850142c8916","verdict":"upheld","direction":"counts_against","alternative":null,"readingIndex":0,"assessmentKey":"if_wrong"},{"model":"google/gemini-4-argon","ground":"not_this_factor","quotes":[{"text":"Utilities Struggle to Confront Issue of ‘Phantom AI Data Centers","report":1},{"text":"Utilities are tightening connection requirements as speculative data-center requests swell grid queues, illustrating how power access and interconnection—not just chips—can delay AI infrastructure.","report":1}],"reason":"The reading uses this development as supporting the assessment that demand sets the pace, yet it was only linked to factors C5 (which undercuts this assessment when stronger) and M1 (which supports the rival assessment that grid power is the binding constraint). Moreover, the report itself states that speculative requests are swelling grid queues and illustrating how power access and interconnection delay AI infrastructure, which reinforces C5 and M1 against this assessment rather than supporting it.","earlier":null,"eventId":"e9dccc80-490a-4e61-bca8-028d2243bcba","verdict":"disputed","direction":"supports","alternative":null,"readingIndex":0,"assessmentKey":"if_wrong"},{"model":"google/gemini-4-argon","ground":"not_this_factor","quotes":[{"text":"Big Tech GPU supplies run dry as neoclouds expand","report":1},{"text":"intense competition for NVIDIA GPUs, rising rental prices, and supply constraints that could persist as data-center power infrastructure lags.","report":1}],"reason":"The report describes GPU shortages and rising rental prices as neoclouds expand, rather than projects slipping or being delayed because of power. The reading itself notes that this development is about 'no spare accelerator capacity and no falling rental prices' (which it calls C3), so it does not represent a change in factor C5 ('Power still given as the reason for delays'). Even the summary's mention that 'data-center power infrastructure lags' is framed as a reason GPU supply constraints could persist, not as a report of data centre project delays attributed to grid power.","earlier":null,"eventId":"ccb70a64-4a03-40d2-aa6b-194b6c7f0c1d","verdict":"disputed","direction":"counts_against","alternative":null,"readingIndex":0,"assessmentKey":"if_wrong"},{"model":"google/gemini-4-argon","ground":"not_this_factor","quotes":[{"text":"Big Tech GPU supplies run dry as neoclouds expand","report":1},{"text":"intense competition for NVIDIA GPUs, rising rental prices, and supply constraints that could persist as data-center power infrastructure lags.","report":1}],"reason":"The linked factor C5 concerns reports that data centre projects are delayed because of grid power, which means the grid still binds and would support—not count against—the main assessment that grid power is the binding constraint. While the report's title about GPU supplies running dry counts against the main assessment by favoring the accelerator supply alternative (MX1), GPU supply tightness is not a change in factor C5 as defined.","earlier":null,"eventId":"ccb70a64-4a03-40d2-aa6b-194b6c7f0c1d","verdict":"disputed","direction":"counts_against","alternative":null,"readingIndex":1,"assessmentKey":"main"},{"model":"google/gemini-4-argon","ground":"not_this_factor","quotes":[{"text":"Hyperscale Data Reduces ATM Program, Shifts to Debt","report":1},{"text":"Hyperscale Data plans to use project debt to help fund a Michigan AI data-center buildout designed to provide 20 MW of compute capacity for a neocloud customer.","report":1}],"reason":"Factor R3 covers debt, lease, and joint-venture financing for data centre campuses, where securing debt financing supports the assessment and withdrawn or repriced financing counts against it. The report states that Hyperscale Data is shifting from an at-the-market equity program to project debt to fund a 20 MW Michigan buildout, which is an move toward using project debt rather than a financing withdrawal or setback that weakens R3. Accordingly, the reported development does not bear on R3 against the assessment.","earlier":null,"eventId":"27fd46f1-c692-4363-833e-4d4aa659402c","verdict":"disputed","direction":"counts_against","alternative":null,"readingIndex":1,"assessmentKey":"rests_on"},{"model":"google/gemini-4-argon","ground":"not_this_factor","quotes":[{"text":"The AI Giants Are Facing a Severe Case of Financial Indigestion","report":1},{"text":"AI data-center projects face equipment and labor shortages, permitting and community opposition, and lengthy grid-connection timelines, highlighting constraints on planned buildouts.","report":1}],"reason":"The reading relied on this development as supporting the assessment if_wrong (that demand sets the pace), noting that 'financial indigestion among AI giants' could weakly support it. However, the development was linked only to factors C5 and M3, both of which concern power and grid delays acting as the binding constraint (where a stronger factor undercuts if_wrong and supports main). Neither financial indigestion nor lengthy grid-connection timelines constitutes a change in C5 or M3 that bears on the assessment if_wrong in a supporting direction.","earlier":null,"eventId":"4537d6f8-83c2-4e11-9f50-4f062c10b87e","verdict":"disputed","direction":"supports","alternative":null,"readingIndex":1,"assessmentKey":"if_wrong"},{"model":"google/gemini-4-argon","ground":"not_this_factor","quotes":[{"text":"Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon and Meta spent a combined $165.1B on property and equipment in calendar Q2 2026, up 87% from $88.2B a year earlier","report":1},{"text":"Cloud revenue is accelerating but remains far smaller than the spend: Google Cloud grew 82% to $24.8B and AWS 37% to $42.2B in Q2 2026, while Alphabet’s quarterly capex was 1.8 times Google Cloud revenue.","report":1}],"reason":"The reading treats this development as counting against the assessment via factor R1. However, R1 measures quarterly capital spending by the largest US cloud companies, where growth supports the assessment. The report shows an 87% year-over-year increase in property and equipment spending by Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta, which strengthens R1 in favor of the assessment rather than counting against it.","earlier":null,"eventId":"f3f720f2-e75e-4eae-9294-1c2fb58e1895","verdict":"disputed","direction":"counts_against","alternative":null,"readingIndex":2,"assessmentKey":"rests_on"},{"model":"google/gemini-4-argon","ground":null,"quotes":[{"text":"FERC accepted key elements of PJM’s proposed power procurement but delayed implementation for five months and ordered revisions to ensure data centers and other large new users bear costs attributable to their demand.","report":1},{"text":"rapid demand gains, driven primarily by data center construction, outpaced available supply in its latest auction results.","report":5}],"reason":"The reports confirm that FERC suspended PJM's data center power procurement plan for five months to ensure large new loads bear the costs of their demand amid a 6.8-GW capacity shortfall. This regulatory pause and imposition of cost-allocation terms for large loads strengthens factor M2 (special terms and pauses for large loads) and M1 (waits and delays for grid capacity), which supports the main grid-constraint thesis and therefore counts against the rival assessment that AI demand sets the pace of buildout.","earlier":null,"eventId":"7f124911-360e-4d7f-bd4b-9bed30982e81","verdict":"upheld","direction":"counts_against","alternative":null,"readingIndex":3,"assessmentKey":"if_wrong"},{"model":"google/gemini-4-argon","ground":"not_this_factor","quotes":[{"text":"PJM expects projects to sign a Generation Interconnection Agreement within 10 months of submis","report":2},{"text":"PJM cleared two battery storage projects and a gas plant upgrade worth more than 2,100 MW under its new fast-track interconnection process.","report":4}],"reason":"The reports state that PJM fast-tracked two battery storage projects and a gas plant upgrade under a Generation Interconnection Agreement process for new capacity resources. Neither factor M1 (which covers how long a large new load waits for a grid connection) nor factor M5 (which covers on-site power, co-location, or flexible load arrangements that let a data centre campus draw power sooner) encompasses utility-scale grid generation interconnection queues.","earlier":null,"eventId":"611cf6f8-6164-4d2d-a437-facf39356197","verdict":"disputed","direction":"counts_against","alternative":null,"readingIndex":4,"assessmentKey":"main"},{"model":"google/gemini-4-argon","ground":"fits_alternative_equally","quotes":[{"text":"SOAR AI Secures Up to $1 Billion Equity Facility to Fund Expansion of Its AI Infrastructure Platform","report":1},{"text":"SOAR AI announced an equity facility of up to $1 billion to develop its Ohio AI campus and other sites, including dedicated GPU clusters backed by customer orders.","report":1}],"reason":"The report describes a specialized AI infrastructure provider (SOAR AI) securing external financing to develop an AI campus and GPU clusters backed by customer orders, rather than capital spending on the balance sheet of one of the largest US cloud companies. This development fits alternative RX2—that spending moves off the largest companies' balance sheets to specialized providers—at least as well as it supports the main assessment.","earlier":null,"eventId":"39450713-c1b4-4386-8743-ef14beabecca","verdict":"disputed","direction":"supports","alternative":"RX2","readingIndex":4,"assessmentKey":"rests_on"}],"readings":[{"index":0,"assessments":{"main":{"term":"likely","cited":[{"n":1,"direction":"supports"},{"n":6,"direction":"supports"},{"n":3,"direction":"supports"},{"n":2,"direction":"supports"},{"n":4,"direction":"supports"},{"n":9,"direction":"counts_against"}],"shown":[3,10,5,8,2,9,7,6,1,4],"reason":"Developments 1 and 6 directly support the assessment: FERC paused PJM's large-load procurement plan citing ratepayer cost allocation (M2), and Oracle's Wisconsin data centre lost ten months of progress and faces power grid approval delays pushing full load to 2029 (M3). Development 3 shows Duke Energy imposing special cost-protection terms on data centre customers (M2 supports). Development 2 shows PJM fast-tracking only 2.1 GW, a modest amount relative to the queue, which does little to relieve the constraint. Development 4 shows FERC rejecting Oklo's attempt to re-enter the PJM queue, confirming queue congestion (M1 supports). The rival alternative MX1 gains some color from development 9 reporting GPU supplies running dry, but that is a single source and the weight of multi-source evidence points to power as the binding constraint."},"if_wrong":{"term":"unlikely","cited":[{"n":6,"direction":"counts_against"},{"n":8,"direction":"supports"},{"n":9,"direction":"counts_against"}],"shown":[3,10,5,8,2,9,7,6,1,4],"reason":"Development 6 (Oracle's Wisconsin centre delayed years by power grid approvals, C5 counts against) and developments linked through the rival assessment such as the FERC and PJM actions all point to power as the active constraint rather than demand softness. Development 8 reports utilities struggling with phantom data centres that never materialize, which offers some support to C2 and C4, but it is a single source. Development 9 reports GPU supplies running dry at neoclouds (C3 counts against, as this implies no spare accelerator capacity and no falling rental prices). The weight of evidence shows the grid binding before demand softens, making this assessment unlikely."},"rests_on":{"term":"likely","cited":[{"n":1,"direction":"supports"},{"n":5,"direction":"supports"},{"n":6,"direction":"supports"},{"n":7,"direction":"counts_against"}],"shown":[3,10,5,8,2,9,7,6,1,4],"reason":"Development 1 shows Alphabet signaling more AI spending after an $80.6 billion first-half outlay (R1 and R2 support). Development 5 reports Google Cloud surging at 82 percent and heavy spending starting to make sense (R1 supports). Development 6 shows AWS CEO defending continued AI spending with a broad customer base (R2 supports). Development 7 notes a data-centre debt selloff that snags some AI buildouts, which introduces modest financing friction (R3 counts against slightly), but the overall picture of the largest cloud spenders remains one of rising committed capital through the period. The developments are modest in number but the prior evidence of multi-year capex commitments by the hyperscalers is strong."}}},{"index":1,"assessments":{"main":{"term":"likely","cited":[{"n":4,"direction":"supports"},{"n":1,"direction":"supports"},{"n":3,"direction":"supports"},{"n":6,"direction":"supports"},{"n":8,"direction":"counts_against"},{"n":9,"direction":"counts_against"}],"shown":[4,8,7,6,10,3,1,9,2,5],"reason":"Development 4 shows FERC rejecting a bid to restore a 750 MW project to PJM's interconnection queue, reinforcing that the queue itself is a hard gate. Development 1 shows PJM's data centre power plan paused over cost allocation, directly bearing on M2 special terms and rationing of connection capacity. Development 3 shows Duke Energy negotiating special cost-protection terms with data centre operators, again consistent with M2. Development 6 shows FERC suspending PJM's reliability backstop procurement, signalling ongoing capacity adequacy stress. Developments 8 and 9, linked through the rival, report GPU supply tightness and Nokia's CEO saying centres would be built faster without supply constraints, which weakly support alternative MX1 but are single-source reports that do not clearly displace the multi-source grid evidence. On balance the grid-constraint case is well supported and the alternatives are not dominant."},"if_wrong":{"term":"unlikely","cited":[{"n":6,"direction":"counts_against"},{"n":8,"direction":"supports"},{"n":10,"direction":"supports"}],"shown":[4,8,7,6,10,3,1,9,2,5],"reason":"Development 6 reports Oracle's 1.3 GW Wisconsin data centre pushed to late 2027 at the earliest for partial power and 2029 for full load due to grid approval delays, directly countering C5 and showing power as the stated reason for delay. Development 8 reports utilities struggling with phantom AI data centres, suggesting some speculative demand but not a broad demand-led slowdown. Development 10 notes financial indigestion among AI giants, which could weakly support C4, but is a single-source opinion piece. The clearest multi-source evidence points to power as the binding reason for project delays rather than demand softness, making the demand-pacing alternative unlikely but not very unlikely given some real financing tensions."},"rests_on":{"term":"likely","cited":[{"n":1,"direction":"supports"},{"n":5,"direction":"supports"},{"n":6,"direction":"supports"},{"n":7,"direction":"counts_against"},{"n":3,"direction":"counts_against"}],"shown":[4,8,7,6,10,3,1,9,2,5],"reason":"Development 1 signals Alphabet's continued heavy AI capital spending after an $80.6 billion first-half outlay, supporting R1 and R2. Development 5 shows Google Cloud surging at 82 percent with analysts saying heavy spending is starting to make sense, supporting R2. Development 6 reports AWS CEO defending ongoing AI spending with a broad customer base, supporting R2. Development 7 flags a data centre debt selloff snagging some AI buildouts, which weakly undercuts R3, and development 3 notes one player reducing its ATM programme and shifting to debt, a mild caution on financing. The broad picture from multiple sources is that the largest spenders are maintaining and signalling further growth in capital spending, keeping demand pressed against the power constraint."}}},{"index":2,"assessments":{"main":{"term":"likely","cited":[{"n":1,"direction":"supports"},{"n":4,"direction":"supports"},{"n":3,"direction":"supports"},{"n":2,"direction":"supports"},{"n":9,"direction":"counts_against"}],"shown":[5,2,10,1,9,4,7,6,3,8],"reason":"Development 1 shows FERC intervening in PJM's data centre connection plan and imposing a five-month pause over ratepayer cost allocation, directly bearing on factor M2 (special terms and pauses for large loads). Development 4 shows FERC rejecting Oklo's attempt to re-enter the PJM interconnection queue, reinforcing that queue discipline is tight and waits are real (M1). Development 3 shows Duke Energy striking a deal with data centres that protects other customers from costs, another instance of special tariff terms (M2). Development 2 shows PJM fast-tracking only 2.1 GW on its reliability path, which is a modest relief against a large queue and does not negate the binding character of M1. Development 9 (linked through rival) notes Nokia's CEO saying data centres would be built twice as fast without supply constraints, which could point toward accelerators as a rival constraint, but the same reports are consistent with power also binding; it modestly counts against the main assessment without overturning it. The pre-existing evidence that interconnection queues in the US run to years, that transformer lead times remain long (M4), and that no large-scale on-site alternative (M5) has emerged to dissolve the constraint keeps the assessment firmly likely rather than very likely."},"if_wrong":{"term":"unlikely","cited":[{"n":6,"direction":"counts_against"},{"n":10,"direction":"supports"},{"n":9,"direction":"counts_against"}],"shown":[5,2,10,1,9,4,7,6,3,8],"reason":"Development 6 (if_wrong's own factor) reports Oracle's Wisconsin data centre facing years of delays specifically because of grid approval problems, which directly supports C5 (power still given as the reason for delays) and counts against this assessment. Development 10 reports AI giants facing financial indigestion, touching on C4, but does not show a spending cut attributed to lagging AI revenue. Development 9 reports GPU supplies running dry as neoclouds expand, pointing toward accelerator scarcity as a possible rival constraint (C3 direction absent, but supply pressure weakens the spare-capacity signal). The developments overall show power constraints still actively causing project slippage, which is the strongest signal against a demand-paced scenario, keeping this assessment unlikely."},"rests_on":{"term":"likely","cited":[{"n":1,"direction":"supports"},{"n":5,"direction":"supports"},{"n":7,"direction":"counts_against"},{"n":8,"direction":"counts_against"}],"shown":[5,2,10,1,9,4,7,6,3,8],"reason":"Development 1 reports Alphabet signalling more AI spending after an $80.6 billion first-half outlay, directly supporting factor R1 and R2. Development 5 reports Google Cloud surging at 82 percent year on year with heavy spending starting to make sense, further supporting R1 and R2. Development 7 flags a data centre debt selloff that is snagging some AI buildouts, which touches on financing stress and counts against R3. Development 10 raises questions about who is paying for the AI data centre boom, and development 8 compares hyperscaler capex against cloud revenue showing spending outpacing revenue, together providing mild caution. On balance the largest spenders are publicly committing to continued growth in capital spending, so demand keeps pressing on the power constraint, but financing stress introduces enough uncertainty to keep the term at likely rather than very likely."}}},{"index":3,"assessments":{"main":{"term":"likely","cited":[{"n":1,"direction":"supports"},{"n":2,"direction":"supports"},{"n":3,"direction":"supports"},{"n":4,"direction":"supports"}],"shown":[9,8,2,3,4,1,7,10,5,6],"reason":"Development 1 shows FERC pausing PJM's large-load procurement plan over cost-allocation disputes, pointing to ongoing interconnection friction (supports via M2). Development 3 shows Duke Energy imposing special financial terms on data centre customers to protect other ratepayers, a direct example of utilities rationing connection capacity (supports via M2). Development 4 shows FERC refusing to reinstate a 750 MW project in the PJM study queue, illustrating how crowded the interconnection pipeline remains (supports via M1). Development 6, linked through the rival, reports Oracle's Wisconsin campus pushed to 2029 for full power due to grid approval delays, a direct project delay caused by power availability (supports via M3). Development 2 shows PJM fast-tracking only 2.1 GW of new supply, which is modest relative to reported demand, providing limited relief (supports via M1). The rivals' GPU-supply developments 8 and 9 note chip tightness but do not show connected power sitting idle waiting for chips, leaving the grid constraint intact."},"if_wrong":{"term":"unlikely","cited":[{"n":6,"direction":"counts_against"},{"n":1,"direction":"counts_against"},{"n":9,"direction":"counts_against"}],"shown":[9,8,2,3,4,1,7,10,5,6],"reason":"Development 6 directly reports Oracle's Wisconsin data centre delayed by years because of power grid approvals, a concrete case where power rather than demand slows buildout (counts against via C5). Development 1, linked through the rival, shows PJM's large-load plan paused over interconnection cost disputes, reinforcing that the grid still binds (counts against via C5). Development 3, also linked through the rival, shows Duke imposing special terms on data centres rather than any report of projects paused for demand reasons, weakening the demand-pacing story. Development 9 notes GPU supplies running dry as neoclouds expand, suggesting capacity is being absorbed rather than sitting idle, which is inconsistent with a demand shortfall (counts against via C3). No development reports cancellations or deferrals citing insufficient AI revenue or overcapacity."},"rests_on":{"term":"likely","cited":[{"n":1,"direction":"supports"},{"n":5,"direction":"supports"},{"n":6,"direction":"supports"},{"n":7,"direction":"counts_against"}],"shown":[9,8,2,3,4,1,7,10,5,6],"reason":"Development 1 from the rests_on set shows Alphabet signalling continued AI spending after an $80.6 billion first-half outlay, supporting rising capital expenditure (supports via R2). Development 5 reports Google Cloud surging at 82 percent and heavy spending starting to make financial sense, reinforcing a raised outlook (supports via R2). Development 6 shows the AWS CEO defending continued AI spending with a broad customer base, supporting sustained outlays (supports via R2). Development 7 flags a data-centre debt selloff snagging some buildouts, a mild caution (counts against via R3), but it is a single report and the broader set of developments shows major hyperscalers pressing forward. The overall picture from widely known prior spending trajectories plus these developments supports the condition that demand keeps pressing on the power constraint."}}},{"index":4,"assessments":{"main":{"term":"likely","cited":[{"n":4,"direction":"supports"},{"n":1,"direction":"supports"},{"n":3,"direction":"supports"},{"n":6,"direction":"supports"},{"n":2,"direction":"counts_against"}],"shown":[4,10,2,6,8,7,1,3,5,9],"reason":"The developments show continued grid friction bearing on factors M1 and M2. Development 4 shows FERC rejecting a 750 MW project's reinstatement in PJM's interconnection queue, reinforcing that queue backlogs persist. Development 1 shows FERC imposing a five-month pause on PJM's large-load plan over cost allocation disputes, adding regulatory delay to the connection process. Development 3 shows Duke Energy negotiating special cost terms with data centre operators, consistent with M2's rationing signals. Development 6 reflects ongoing regulatory debate over backstop procurement that keeps connection timelines uncertain. Development 2, which shows PJM fast-tracking only 2.1 GW, is a modest offset but does not dissolve the broader queue constraint. Rivals MX1 and MX2 lack comparable corroboration in the developments shown."},"if_wrong":{"term":"unlikely","cited":[{"n":10,"direction":"supports"},{"n":9,"direction":"counts_against"},{"n":6,"direction":"counts_against"}],"shown":[4,10,2,6,8,7,1,3,5,9],"reason":"The developments linked to this assessment's own factors are thin and mixed. Development 10 describes financial indigestion at AI giants, which touches C4, but it is a single source and does not report an actual spending cut or a stated demand-driven rationale for slowing. Development 9 reports GPU supplies running dry as neoclouds expand, which counts against C3 and against spare-capacity signals this scenario requires. Development 6, linked through the rival, shows Oracle's Wisconsin campus facing years of power-related delays, directly supporting C5 and cutting against the demand-pacing story. The bulk of the grid-side developments across all three assessments points to power as the active constraint rather than demand softness, leaving this alternative unlikely relative to the main assessment."},"rests_on":{"term":"likely","cited":[{"n":1,"direction":"supports"},{"n":6,"direction":"supports"},{"n":4,"direction":"supports"},{"n":7,"direction":"counts_against"}],"shown":[4,10,2,6,8,7,1,3,5,9],"reason":"Development 1 shows Alphabet signalling more AI spending after an $80.6 billion first-half outlay, supporting R1 and R2. Development 6 shows the AWS CEO publicly defending continued AI capital spending with a broad customer base, consistent with R2. Development 4 reports SOAR AI securing up to $1 billion in equity to fund AI infrastructure expansion, supporting R3. Development 7 notes some data-centre debt stress, which is a mild caution on R3, but it is a single source and does not indicate a broad spending reversal. The overall picture from the developments is that the largest spenders are sustaining and signalling further capital outlays through the relevant period."}}}]},{"readings":[{"index":0,"assessments":{"main":{"term":"likely","cited":[{"n":1,"direction":"supports"},{"n":3,"direction":"supports"},{"n":5,"direction":"supports"},{"n":6,"direction":"supports"}],"shown":[3,10,5,7,6,1],"reason":"Developments 1 and 6 directly support factor M1 and M3: FERC suspended PJM's data centre power plan pending revisions and Oracle's Wisconsin campus faces years of delays due to grid approvals, both showing power as a binding constraint. Development 3 supports factor M2, with Duke Energy striking special-terms deals with data centres to protect other ratepayers. Development 5 supports M2 further, with DOE pressing PJM on ratepayer protections for large loads. No development strongly supports alternative MX1, MX2 or MX3 as the dominant constraint, and M5 is not meaningfully strengthened by any development shown."},"if_wrong":{"term":"unlikely","cited":[{"n":6,"direction":"counts_against"},{"n":7,"direction":"counts_against"},{"n":1,"direction":"counts_against"},{"n":3,"direction":"counts_against"},{"n":5,"direction":"counts_against"}],"shown":[3,5,2,7,6,1,4],"reason":"Development 7 reports strong 27 percent year-on-year growth in data centre physical infrastructure spending, counting against C1. Development 6 reports Oracle's Wisconsin campus delayed specifically because of power grid approvals, directly supporting C5 and showing the grid still binds. Developments 1, 3 and 5, linked through the rival's factors, also reinforce that power rather than demand is the operative constraint. No development shows cancellations citing demand shortfalls or falling accelerator prices that would support C2 or C3."},"rests_on":{"term":"likely","cited":[{"n":1,"direction":"supports"},{"n":5,"direction":"supports"},{"n":6,"direction":"supports"},{"n":7,"direction":"counts_against"}],"shown":[10,5,2,9,7,6,1],"reason":"Development 1 reports Alphabet signalling more AI spending after an $80.6 billion first-half outlay, supporting R1 and R2. Development 6 reports AWS CEO defending continued AI infrastructure spending, supporting R2. Development 5 notes Google Cloud surging at 82 percent and heavy spending starting to make sense, supporting R1 and R2. Development 7 raises some concern about data centre debt distress that could pressure financing, weakly bearing on R3, but the overall picture of rising hyperscaler commitments is strong."}}},{"index":1,"assessments":{"main":{"term":"likely","cited":[{"n":6,"direction":"supports"},{"n":3,"direction":"supports"},{"n":1,"direction":"supports"}],"shown":[7,6,10,3,1,5],"reason":"Development 6 (FERC suspending PJM's reliability backstop procurement and opening a paper hearing) shows continued regulatory friction around large-load grid access, supporting M2. Development 3 (Duke Energy striking a deal to protect customers from data centre costs with special terms for large loads) directly supports M2 by showing utilities imposing conditions on new large connections. Development 1 (PJM delaying its data centre power auction with a five-month pause citing cost allocation concerns) further supports M2. No development shown materially strengthens the alternatives MX1, MX2 or MX3, and M5 is not meaningfully bolstered. Prior knowledge of multi-year interconnection queues and long equipment lead times already set a high prior for grid as binding constraint, and the developments reinforce it."},"if_wrong":{"term":"unlikely","cited":[{"n":6,"direction":"counts_against"},{"n":7,"direction":"counts_against"}],"shown":[4,7,6,3,1,2,5],"reason":"Development 6 (Oracle's 1.3 GW Wisconsin data centre pushed to late 2027 and full load to 2029 because of power grid approval delays) directly supports C5, showing power still given as the reason for project delays and thereby undercutting this assessment. Development 7 (data centre physical infrastructure market growing 27 percent year on year to $14 billion in Q2 2026) points to continued strong demand-driven spending rather than a demand-paced slowdown, counting against C1. Developments linked through the rival assessment (Duke Energy special terms, PJM pause, FERC proceedings) all reinforce the grid-constraint story rather than a demand-paced one. No development shown supports C2, C3 or C4."},"rests_on":{"term":"likely","cited":[{"n":1,"direction":"supports"},{"n":6,"direction":"supports"},{"n":5,"direction":"supports"},{"n":7,"direction":"counts_against"}],"shown":[7,6,10,1,9,2,5],"reason":"Development 1 (Alphabet signalling more AI spending after an $80.6 billion first-half outlay) directly supports R1 and R2, showing the largest cloud spenders continuing to raise capital expenditure. Development 6 (AWS CEO defending ongoing AI spending citing a broad customer base) supports R2. Development 5 (Google Cloud surging at 82 percent, making heavy spending look justified) supports R2 and reinforces that spending is not being cut. Development 7 (data centre debt distress noted) is a mild signal through R3 but does not dominate. Prior knowledge of publicly disclosed multi-year capex commitments by the hyperscalers set a high prior, and the developments support it."}}},{"index":2,"assessments":{"main":{"term":"likely","cited":[{"n":1,"direction":"supports"},{"n":3,"direction":"supports"},{"n":5,"direction":"supports"},{"n":6,"direction":"supports"}],"shown":[5,10,1,7,6,3],"reason":"Development 1 shows FERC pausing PJM's data centre load plan over cost allocation, pointing to ongoing grid-capacity rationing that bears on M2. Development 3 shows Duke Energy negotiating special terms with large data centre customers to protect ratepayers, also bearing on M2. Development 6 reports Oracle's Wisconsin campus pushed to 2027 at the earliest for partial power and 2029 for full load because of power-line approvals, directly illustrating M3 and M1. Development 5 shows the Energy Department pressing PJM on ratepayer protections, reinforcing that grid cost and capacity constraints are active policy concerns. No development shows a large bypass of the grid constraint through on-site power at scale that would strengthen M5 enough to offset these signals."},"if_wrong":{"term":"unlikely","cited":[{"n":6,"direction":"counts_against"},{"n":7,"direction":"counts_against"},{"n":1,"direction":"counts_against"},{"n":4,"direction":"counts_against"},{"n":5,"direction":"counts_against"}],"shown":[5,2,1,4,7,6,3],"reason":"Development 6 reports the Oracle Wisconsin campus delayed by years because of power-grid approvals, which directly counts against this assessment via its C5 factor. Development 7 shows the data centre physical infrastructure market growing 27 percent year on year, pointing to continued expansion rather than a demand-paced slowdown. Developments 1, 4 and 5 linked through the rival's factors all point to active grid constraints still binding projects, weakening the case that demand rather than power is the pace-setter. No development cited here shows cancellations or deferrals attributable to weak AI revenue or spare accelerator capacity."},"rests_on":{"term":"likely","cited":[{"n":1,"direction":"supports"},{"n":6,"direction":"supports"},{"n":10,"direction":"supports"},{"n":7,"direction":"counts_against"}],"shown":[5,2,10,1,9,7,6],"reason":"Development 1 reports Alphabet signalling continued heavy AI spending after an 80.6 billion dollar first-half outlay, directly supporting R1 and R2. Development 6 from the AWS CEO defends ongoing AI infrastructure spending with a broad customer base, also supporting R2. Development 10 addresses who is financing the data centre boom, supporting R3. Development 7 reports distress in some data centre debt markets, which is a mild signal against R3, though it covers specialized providers rather than the largest hyperscalers. On balance the evidence of continued and rising hyperscaler commitment is stronger than the single debt-distress report."}}},{"index":3,"assessments":{"main":{"term":"likely","cited":[{"n":1,"direction":"supports"},{"n":3,"direction":"supports"},{"n":5,"direction":"supports"},{"n":6,"direction":"supports"}],"shown":[3,1,7,10,5,6],"reason":"Development 1 reports that PJM delayed its data centre power auction and FERC asked for revisions over cost-allocation concerns, supporting M2 by showing regulators imposing special terms on large loads. Development 3 shows Duke Energy reaching a deal with data centres that includes protective terms for other ratepayers, also supporting M2. Developments 5 and 6 further reinforce that FERC and DOE are scrutinising PJM's capacity mechanisms for large loads, pointing to ongoing grid-capacity rationing. No strong developments emerged for the alternatives MX1 or MX2, and the waits-and-terms picture fits what was already widely known about multi-year interconnection queues, keeping the assessment likely rather than very likely because workarounds under M5 are also active in the market."},"if_wrong":{"term":"unlikely","cited":[{"n":6,"direction":"counts_against"},{"n":1,"direction":"counts_against"},{"n":7,"direction":"counts_against"}],"shown":[2,3,4,1,7,5,6],"reason":"Development 6, linked through a rival factor, reports that Oracle's 1.3 GW Wisconsin data centre faces years of delays because of power grid approvals, directly supporting C5 and counting against this assessment. Development 1, also linked through a rival factor, shows PJM delaying its large-load capacity auction over grid-cost concerns, further supporting C5. Development 7 shows the physical infrastructure market growing 27 percent year on year, giving no sign of slowing capital spending that would support C1. The overall picture is that power remains the stated bottleneck rather than demand, which is what weakens the demand-pacing scenario."},"rests_on":{"term":"likely","cited":[{"n":1,"direction":"supports"},{"n":5,"direction":"supports"},{"n":6,"direction":"supports"},{"n":7,"direction":"counts_against"}],"shown":[9,2,1,7,10,5,6],"reason":"Development 1 reports Alphabet signalling more AI spending after an $80.6 billion first-half outlay, supporting R2 by showing a raised spending outlook. Development 5 shows Google Cloud surging at 82 percent with heavy spending beginning to look justified, supporting R1 and R2. Development 6 shows AWS leadership defending ongoing AI infrastructure spending with a broad customer base, supporting R2. Development 7 flags some distress in data-centre debt markets, which could mildly count against R3, but the weight of evidence from the hyperscalers themselves points to continued rising capex, keeping the assessment likely."}}},{"index":4,"assessments":{"main":{"term":"likely","cited":[{"n":1,"direction":"supports"},{"n":3,"direction":"supports"},{"n":6,"direction":"supports"}],"shown":[10,6,7,1,3,5],"reason":"Development 1 shows FERC suspending PJM's large-load procurement plan and asking for revisions to protect ratepayers, signaling that grid capacity allocation for data centers remains contested and slow (factor M2). Development 3 shows Duke Energy requiring data centers to bear their own grid upgrade costs under special tariff terms, reinforcing that utilities are rationing connection capacity through financial conditions (factor M2). Development 6 shows FERC's backstop procurement mechanism suspended, further tightening the timeline for new grid capacity in the largest US grid region (factor M1). The Oracle Wisconsin project in the rival's development 6 also confirms a major project pushed to 2029 for full power due to grid approvals, directly illustrating factor M3. These developments consistently point to power and interconnection as the binding constraint, with no strong evidence that alternatives MX1 or MX2 are tighter."},"if_wrong":{"term":"unlikely","cited":[{"n":6,"direction":"counts_against"},{"n":1,"direction":"counts_against"},{"n":7,"direction":"counts_against"}],"shown":[4,2,6,7,1,3,5],"reason":"Development 6 (Oracle's Wisconsin data center pushed to 2029 for full power because of grid approvals) is a direct report of power causing delay, which weakens this assessment via factor C5. Developments 1, 3 and 5 (linked through the rival) all show ongoing regulatory and tariff actions treating grid capacity as scarce and contested, further indicating the grid still binds rather than demand being the pace-setter (factor C5). Development 7 shows the physical infrastructure market growing 27 percent year on year, pointing against any demand-led slowdown (factor C1). The few developments shown are consistent and point away from this assessment."},"rests_on":{"term":"likely","cited":[{"n":1,"direction":"supports"},{"n":6,"direction":"supports"},{"n":7,"direction":"counts_against"}],"shown":[10,2,6,7,1,5,9],"reason":"Development 1 (Alphabet signaling more AI spending after an $80.6 billion first-half outlay) supports continued growth in hyperscaler capital expenditure (factor R1 and R2). Development 6 (AWS CEO defending AI spending with a broad customer base) supports a sustained spending outlook (factor R2). Development 7 reports a Bloomberg Law piece on data center debt distress, which provides a mild caution on financing (factor R3), but this is a single source. The broader prior that the largest cloud companies have publicly committed to rising capital expenditure through 2026 and beyond remains intact, and no development shows a cut or pause in plans."}}}]}],"window":{"to":"2026-10-15T04:10:32.971Z","from":"2026-09-24T04:10:32.971Z"},"assessments":{"main":{"terms":["likely","likely","likely","likely","likely"],"logOdds":0.730888,"probabilityPct":67.5},"if_wrong":{"terms":["unlikely","unlikely","unlikely","unlikely","unlikely"],"logOdds":-0.730888,"probabilityPct":32.5},"rests_on":{"terms":["likely","likely","likely","likely","likely"],"logOdds":0.730888,"probabilityPct":67.5}},"criticModel":"google/gemini-4-argon","developments":{"main":[{"n":1,"via":"own","eventId":"7f124911-360e-4d7f-bd4b-9bed30982e81","reports":[{"id":"7f124911-360e-4d7f-bd4b-9bed30982e81","url":"https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/ferc-asks-grid-operator-pjm-revise-plan-shield-homes-data-center-costs-2026-09-30/","title":"FERC asks grid operator PJM to revise plan to shield homes from data center costs","domain":"reuters.com","publishedAt":"2026-09-30T00:00:00Z","retrievedAt":"2026-10-01T01:30:15.471Z"},{"id":"1d61db00-f774-4583-9285-b3d1d78d3ae6","url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-30/biggest-us-grid-s-data-center-plan-accepted-with-5-month-pause","title":"Biggest US Grid's Data-Center Plan Accepted With 5-Month Pause","domain":"bloomberg.com","publishedAt":"2026-09-30T00:00:00Z","retrievedAt":"2026-10-01T04:34:17.416Z"},{"id":"a8ae375a-4bf9-404c-bb46-045cac682dcc","url":"https://www.cleveland.com/news/2026/10/grid-manager-delays-data-center-power-auction-over-concern-on-who-gets-the-bill.html","title":"Grid manager delays data center power auction over concern on who gets the 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large-load definition and registry, rejects interim curtailment service | Headwaters Wire","domain":"headwaterswire.com","publishedAt":"2026-10-10T00:00:00Z","retrievedAt":"2026-10-12T00:15:49.202Z"},{"id":"57b339b7-9da0-4978-ad52-7c3e1731e90f","url":"https://theduckcurve.com/posts/ferc-rejects-pjm-iras-keeps-large-load-registry","title":"FERC rejects PJM's large-load curtailment plan, keeps the load registry | The Duck Curve","domain":"theduckcurve.com","publishedAt":"2026-10-10T00:00:00Z","retrievedAt":"2026-10-12T00:15:49.784Z"},{"id":"0e2a8cd2-6b76-46f5-9652-c8e5df5de4cd","url":"https://www.boursorama.com/bourse/actualites/une-commission-americaine-approuve-le-registre-des-centres-de-donnees-etabli-par-pjm-et-rejette-le-projet-visant-a-reduire-leur-alimentation-electrique-3988d8606ac734864d10e764fe16ed97","title":"Une commission américaine approuve le registre des centres de données établi par PJM et rejette le projet visant à réduire leur alimentation 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