{
  "name": "Leadership Under Uncertainty",
  "description": "Strategic intelligence platform for AI agents and decision-makers. Provides calibrated probability forecasts, intelligence briefs, strategic signals monitoring, prediction portfolio management, scenario analysis, risk assessment, fact-checking, and ontological context about a user's strategic landscape. Designed for integration with LLM agents needing structured geopolitical, market, and technology intelligence.",
  "url": "https://leadershipunderuncertainty.org",
  "version": "1.0.0",
  "provider": {
    "organization": "Leadership Under Uncertainty",
    "url": "https://leadershipunderuncertainty.org"
  },
  "capabilities": {
    "streaming": false,
    "pushNotifications": false,
    "stateTransitionHistory": false,
    "extensions": [
      {
        "uri": "https://sco.leadershipunderuncertainty.org/a2a/extensions/handoff-envelope/v1",
        "description": "SCO HandoffEnvelope — artifact-handoff contract for inter-agent transfer of strategic-analytic artifacts.",
        "required": false,
        "version": "1.0.0",
        "documentation": "https://leadershipunderuncertainty.org/sco/a2a/extensions/handoff-envelope/v1"
      }
    ]
  },
  "authentication": {
    "schemes": [
      {
        "scheme": "bearer",
        "header": "Authorization",
        "description": "Bearer token obtained from API key management at /settings/api-keys"
      }
    ]
  },
  "defaultInputModes": ["application/json"],
  "defaultOutputModes": ["application/json"],
  "skills": [
    {
      "id": "northbrief_forecast",
      "name": "Forecast",
      "description": "Generate calibrated probability forecasts for strategic questions. Supports three modes: fast (single LLM, ~30s), superforecast (simulated panel, ~60s), and adw-delphi (full multi-model deliberation, ~3-5min). Returns probability (0-1), rationale, assumptions, signposts, and question decomposition.",
      "tags": [
        "forecasting",
        "probability",
        "geopolitics",
        "markets",
        "prediction"
      ],
      "examples": [
        "Will the Fed cut rates by 50bps or more before June 2025?",
        "What is the probability of a ceasefire in Ukraine by end of 2025?"
      ],
      "inputModes": ["application/json"],
      "outputModes": ["application/json"],
      "inputSchema": {
        "type": "object",
        "properties": {
          "question": {
            "type": "string",
            "description": "The forecasting question. Should be specific and ideally time-bounded."
          },
          "mode": {
            "type": "string",
            "enum": ["fast", "superforecast", "adw-delphi"],
            "description": "Forecasting mode. fast=quick estimate, superforecast=balanced, adw-delphi=deep analysis. Default: fast"
          },
          "horizon_date": {
            "type": "string",
            "format": "date",
            "description": "When the question should resolve (YYYY-MM-DD format)."
          },
          "context": {
            "type": "string",
            "description": "Additional context to inform the forecast."
          },
          "resolution_criteria": {
            "type": "string",
            "description": "How the prediction should be judged true/false."
          }
        },
        "required": ["question"]
      },
      "outputSchema": {
        "type": "object",
        "properties": {
          "probability": {
            "type": "number",
            "minimum": 0,
            "maximum": 1
          },
          "rationale": {
            "type": "string"
          },
          "assumptions": {
            "type": "array",
            "items": {
              "type": "string"
            }
          },
          "signposts": {
            "type": "array",
            "items": {
              "type": "string"
            }
          },
          "decomposition": {
            "type": "object"
          }
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "northbrief_brief",
      "name": "Brief",
      "description": "Generate structured intelligence briefs on any topic. Supports quick/standard/deep depth and executive/analytical/bullet formats. Returns analysis with confidence levels and uncertainty notes, suitable for decision-makers.",
      "tags": [
        "intelligence",
        "analysis",
        "briefing",
        "geopolitics",
        "strategy"
      ],
      "examples": [
        "Brief me on AI chip export controls and their impact on NVIDIA",
        "Deep analytical brief on EU energy security post-2025"
      ],
      "inputModes": ["application/json"],
      "outputModes": ["application/json"],
      "inputSchema": {
        "type": "object",
        "properties": {
          "topic": {
            "type": "string",
            "description": "The topic to brief on. Be specific for better results."
          },
          "depth": {
            "type": "string",
            "enum": ["quick", "standard", "deep"],
            "description": "Analysis depth. Default: standard"
          },
          "format": {
            "type": "string",
            "enum": ["executive", "analytical", "bullet"],
            "description": "Output format structure. Default: executive"
          },
          "focus_areas": {
            "type": "array",
            "items": {
              "type": "string"
            },
            "description": "Specific aspects to emphasize."
          },
          "additional_context": {
            "type": "string",
            "description": "Additional context or constraints for the brief."
          }
        },
        "required": ["topic"]
      },
      "outputSchema": {
        "type": "object",
        "properties": {
          "brief": {
            "type": "string"
          },
          "confidence": {
            "type": "number"
          },
          "uncertainties": {
            "type": "array",
            "items": {
              "type": "string"
            }
          }
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "northbrief_signals",
      "name": "Signals",
      "description": "Access strategic signals and indicators tagged by priority (ACT/WATCH/FYI) and domain. Each signal includes title, priority, domain, content, sources, and timestamp. Supports filtering by priority, domain, and date.",
      "tags": ["signals", "intelligence", "monitoring", "early-warning"],
      "examples": [
        "List all ACT-priority signals from the last week",
        "Get signals in the geopolitics domain"
      ],
      "inputModes": ["application/json"],
      "outputModes": ["application/json"],
      "inputSchema": {
        "type": "object",
        "properties": {
          "action": {
            "type": "string",
            "enum": ["list", "get"],
            "description": "Action to perform. Default: list"
          },
          "id": {
            "type": "string",
            "description": "Signal ID (required for action=get)"
          },
          "filter": {
            "type": "string",
            "enum": ["act", "watch", "fyi"],
            "description": "Filter by priority level"
          },
          "domain": {
            "type": "string",
            "description": "Filter by strategic domain"
          },
          "since": {
            "type": "string",
            "format": "date",
            "description": "Only signals after this date (YYYY-MM-DD)"
          },
          "limit": {
            "type": "number",
            "description": "Maximum number of signals to return. Default: 20, Max: 100"
          }
        },
        "required": []
      },
      "outputSchema": {
        "type": "object",
        "properties": {
          "signals": {
            "type": "array",
            "items": {
              "type": "object",
              "properties": {
                "id": {
                  "type": "string"
                },
                "title": {
                  "type": "string"
                },
                "priority": {
                  "type": "string",
                  "enum": ["act", "watch", "fyi"]
                },
                "domain": {
                  "type": "string"
                },
                "content": {
                  "type": "string"
                },
                "sources": {
                  "type": "array",
                  "items": {
                    "type": "string"
                  }
                },
                "timestamp": {
                  "type": "string",
                  "format": "date-time"
                }
              }
            }
          }
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "northbrief_predictions",
      "name": "Predictions",
      "description": "Manage a prediction portfolio. Create, list, update, and retrieve predictions with probability estimates. Tracks prediction lifecycle from draft through committed to resolved for calibration scoring.",
      "tags": ["predictions", "calibration", "tracking", "portfolio"],
      "examples": [
        "List my active predictions",
        "Create a prediction: Will GPT-5 be released before July 2025? at 65%"
      ],
      "inputModes": ["application/json"],
      "outputModes": ["application/json"],
      "inputSchema": {
        "type": "object",
        "properties": {
          "action": {
            "type": "string",
            "enum": ["list", "create", "update", "get"],
            "description": "Action to perform. Default: list"
          },
          "id": {
            "type": "string",
            "description": "Prediction ID (required for get/update)"
          },
          "question": {
            "type": "string",
            "description": "Prediction question (required for create)"
          },
          "probability": {
            "type": "number",
            "minimum": 0,
            "maximum": 1,
            "description": "Probability estimate 0-1 (required for create)"
          },
          "rationale": {
            "type": "string",
            "description": "Reasoning behind the prediction"
          },
          "deadline": {
            "type": "string",
            "format": "date",
            "description": "When prediction should resolve (YYYY-MM-DD)"
          },
          "status": {
            "type": "string",
            "enum": ["draft", "committed", "archived"],
            "description": "Prediction status (for update)"
          },
          "limit": {
            "type": "number",
            "description": "Max predictions to return. Default: 50"
          },
          "offset": {
            "type": "number",
            "description": "Pagination offset. Default: 0"
          }
        },
        "required": []
      },
      "outputSchema": {
        "type": "object",
        "properties": {
          "predictions": {
            "type": "array",
            "items": {
              "type": "object",
              "properties": {
                "id": {
                  "type": "string"
                },
                "question": {
                  "type": "string"
                },
                "probability": {
                  "type": "number"
                },
                "status": {
                  "type": "string"
                },
                "deadline": {
                  "type": "string"
                }
              }
            }
          }
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "northbrief_views",
      "name": "Views",
      "description": "Access strategic views (high-level beliefs about domains like markets, geopolitics, tech) and their supporting drivers (tailwinds, headwinds, mixed factors). Useful for understanding a user's strategic worldview and identifying blind spots.",
      "tags": ["strategy", "views", "drivers", "worldview", "assessment"],
      "examples": [
        "List all strategic views",
        "Get the view on AI regulation with its drivers"
      ],
      "inputModes": ["application/json"],
      "outputModes": ["application/json"],
      "inputSchema": {
        "type": "object",
        "properties": {
          "action": {
            "type": "string",
            "enum": ["list", "get"],
            "description": "Action to perform. Default: list"
          },
          "id": {
            "type": "string",
            "description": "View ID (required for action=get)"
          },
          "include_drivers": {
            "type": "boolean",
            "description": "Include drivers for each view. Default: true for get, false for list"
          }
        },
        "required": []
      },
      "outputSchema": {
        "type": "object",
        "properties": {
          "views": {
            "type": "array",
            "items": {
              "type": "object",
              "properties": {
                "id": {
                  "type": "string"
                },
                "title": {
                  "type": "string"
                },
                "domain": {
                  "type": "string"
                },
                "confidence": {
                  "type": "number"
                },
                "drivers": {
                  "type": "array",
                  "items": {
                    "type": "object"
                  }
                }
              }
            }
          }
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "northbrief_ontology",
      "name": "Ontology",
      "description": "Get the user's complete strategic context including Strategic Living Script (SLS), views, drivers, predictions, and mental model. This is the primary tool for AI agents to understand a user's strategic landscape before taking actions or making recommendations. Cached for 1 hour.",
      "tags": [
        "ontology",
        "context",
        "mental-model",
        "strategic-landscape",
        "user-context"
      ],
      "examples": [
        "Get the full strategic ontology for the current user",
        "Get a summary of the user's strategic context focusing on views and predictions"
      ],
      "inputModes": ["application/json"],
      "outputModes": ["application/json"],
      "inputSchema": {
        "type": "object",
        "properties": {
          "depth": {
            "type": "string",
            "enum": ["summary", "full"],
            "description": "Level of detail. Default: full"
          },
          "include": {
            "type": "array",
            "items": {
              "type": "string",
              "enum": [
                "sls",
                "views",
                "predictions",
                "mentalModel",
                "actors",
                "signals"
              ]
            },
            "description": "Components to include. If omitted, includes all."
          }
        },
        "required": []
      },
      "outputSchema": {
        "type": "object",
        "properties": {
          "sls": {
            "type": "object"
          },
          "views": {
            "type": "array"
          },
          "predictions": {
            "type": "array"
          },
          "mentalModel": {
            "type": "object"
          },
          "actors": {
            "type": "array"
          },
          "signals": {
            "type": "array"
          },
          "freshness": {
            "type": "string",
            "format": "date-time"
          }
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "northbrief_risk_assessment",
      "name": "Risk Assessment",
      "description": "Generate calibrated risk assessments across financial, regulatory, reputational, operational, and geopolitical dimensions. Returns overall risk level, per-dimension breakdowns, probability of adverse outcome, mitigations, and early warning signposts.",
      "tags": ["risk", "assessment", "mitigation", "strategic-planning"],
      "examples": [
        "Assess risk of expanding operations into Southeast Asian semiconductor manufacturing",
        "Risk assessment for investing in Argentine sovereign bonds"
      ],
      "inputModes": ["application/json"],
      "outputModes": ["application/json"],
      "inputSchema": {
        "type": "object",
        "properties": {
          "topic": {
            "type": "string",
            "description": "The strategic issue or decision to assess."
          },
          "context": {
            "type": "string",
            "description": "Additional context to inform the assessment."
          },
          "risk_dimensions": {
            "type": "array",
            "items": {
              "type": "string",
              "enum": [
                "financial",
                "regulatory",
                "reputational",
                "operational",
                "geopolitical"
              ]
            },
            "description": "Specific risk dimensions to analyze. If omitted, all relevant dimensions are assessed."
          }
        },
        "required": ["topic"]
      },
      "outputSchema": {
        "type": "object",
        "properties": {
          "overallRisk": {
            "type": "string",
            "enum": ["low", "medium", "high", "critical"]
          },
          "probability": {
            "type": "number",
            "minimum": 0,
            "maximum": 1
          },
          "dimensions": {
            "type": "array",
            "items": {
              "type": "object"
            }
          },
          "timeHorizon": {
            "type": "string"
          },
          "mitigations": {
            "type": "array",
            "items": {
              "type": "string"
            }
          },
          "signposts": {
            "type": "array",
            "items": {
              "type": "string"
            }
          }
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "northbrief_scenario_analysis",
      "name": "Scenario Analysis",
      "description": "Generate weighted scenario analysis with 2-5 plausible futures, each with calibrated probabilities, signposts, and implications. Useful for strategic planning under uncertainty. Scenarios sum to approximately 1.0 probability.",
      "tags": ["scenarios", "planning", "uncertainty", "strategy", "futures"],
      "examples": [
        "How will EU AI regulation evolve and impact US tech companies?",
        "Scenarios for the Taiwan Strait situation over the next 2 years"
      ],
      "inputModes": ["application/json"],
      "outputModes": ["application/json"],
      "inputSchema": {
        "type": "object",
        "properties": {
          "question": {
            "type": "string",
            "description": "The strategic question to explore."
          },
          "evidence": {
            "type": "array",
            "items": {
              "type": "string"
            },
            "description": "Current evidence or data points to ground the analysis."
          },
          "num_scenarios": {
            "type": "number",
            "minimum": 2,
            "maximum": 5,
            "description": "Number of scenarios to generate. Default: 3"
          },
          "time_horizon": {
            "type": "string",
            "description": "Time window for the scenarios."
          }
        },
        "required": ["question"]
      },
      "outputSchema": {
        "type": "object",
        "properties": {
          "scenarios": {
            "type": "array",
            "items": {
              "type": "object",
              "properties": {
                "name": {
                  "type": "string"
                },
                "probability": {
                  "type": "number"
                },
                "description": {
                  "type": "string"
                },
                "signposts": {
                  "type": "array",
                  "items": {
                    "type": "string"
                  }
                },
                "implications": {
                  "type": "array",
                  "items": {
                    "type": "string"
                  }
                }
              }
            }
          },
          "baseAssumptions": {
            "type": "array",
            "items": {
              "type": "string"
            }
          },
          "timeHorizon": {
            "type": "string"
          },
          "keyUncertainties": {
            "type": "array",
            "items": {
              "type": "string"
            }
          }
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "northbrief_fact_check",
      "name": "Fact Check",
      "description": "Verify claims and assertions with structured evidence and calibrated verdicts (true/mostly_true/mixed/mostly_false/false/unverifiable). Supports loose/moderate/strict evaluation. Returns verdict, confidence, evidence, reasoning, and caveats.",
      "tags": ["fact-check", "verification", "claims", "evidence", "truth"],
      "examples": [
        "Verify: China produces over 80% of the world's rare earth elements",
        "Strict fact-check: The US national debt exceeded $35 trillion in 2024"
      ],
      "inputModes": ["application/json"],
      "outputModes": ["application/json"],
      "inputSchema": {
        "type": "object",
        "properties": {
          "claim": {
            "type": "string",
            "description": "The specific claim to verify."
          },
          "context": {
            "type": "string",
            "description": "Additional context for the claim."
          },
          "strictness": {
            "type": "string",
            "enum": ["loose", "moderate", "strict"],
            "description": "How strictly to evaluate the claim. Default: moderate"
          }
        },
        "required": ["claim"]
      },
      "outputSchema": {
        "type": "object",
        "properties": {
          "verdict": {
            "type": "string",
            "enum": [
              "true",
              "mostly_true",
              "mixed",
              "mostly_false",
              "false",
              "unverifiable"
            ]
          },
          "confidence": {
            "type": "number",
            "minimum": 0,
            "maximum": 1
          },
          "evidence": {
            "type": "array",
            "items": {
              "type": "string"
            }
          },
          "reasoning": {
            "type": "string"
          },
          "caveats": {
            "type": "array",
            "items": {
              "type": "string"
            }
          }
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "get_strategic_landscape",
      "name": "Strategic Landscape",
      "description": "Get a structured map of the user's strategic landscape including views (with confidence, posture, stability), actors (with Theory of Mind), assumptions being tested, and open questions. Includes a landscape health score.",
      "tags": [
        "landscape",
        "views",
        "actors",
        "strategy",
        "context",
        "theory-of-mind"
      ],
      "examples": [
        "Show me my strategic landscape",
        "What actors are in my landscape?",
        "Get my strategic views and assumptions"
      ],
      "inputModes": ["application/json"],
      "outputModes": ["application/json"],
      "inputSchema": {
        "type": "object",
        "properties": {
          "include_actors": {
            "type": "boolean",
            "description": "Include strategic actors with Theory of Mind profiles. Default: true"
          },
          "include_assumptions": {
            "type": "boolean",
            "description": "Include open assumptions being tested. Default: true"
          }
        }
      },
      "outputSchema": {
        "type": "object",
        "properties": {
          "views": {
            "type": "array",
            "description": "Strategic views with confidence, posture, stability, and supporting drivers"
          },
          "actors": {
            "type": "array",
            "description": "Key players with relationship type, importance, and Theory of Mind"
          },
          "assumptions": {
            "type": "array",
            "description": "Open assumptions from strategic views"
          },
          "openQuestions": {
            "type": "array",
            "description": "Driver questions with current probabilities"
          },
          "landscapeHealth": {
            "type": "number",
            "minimum": 0,
            "maximum": 1,
            "description": "Overall health score of the strategic landscape"
          }
        }
      }
    }
  ]
}